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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+6.24vs Predicted
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2Webb Institute1.43+8.81vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.90+6.39vs Predicted
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4University of Miami1.93+6.38vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.42+0.77vs Predicted
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6Tufts University2.22+1.73vs Predicted
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7Brown University2.91-1.27vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.60-0.75vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University2.09-0.57vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.27+1.68vs Predicted
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11Tulane University2.04-1.80vs Predicted
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12Eckerd College1.34+0.01vs Predicted
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13Cornell University2.38-5.58vs Predicted
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14North Carolina State University1.09-2.27vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.13-4.19vs Predicted
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16Jacksonville University1.20-3.15vs Predicted
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17Boston University1.39-5.59vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41-6.83vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.24St. Mary's College of Maryland2.578.5%1st Place
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10.81Webb Institute1.433.5%1st Place
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9.39University of Pennsylvania1.905.3%1st Place
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10.38University of Miami1.934.3%1st Place
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5.77Yale University2.4213.0%1st Place
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7.73Tufts University2.227.3%1st Place
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5.73Brown University2.9111.7%1st Place
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7.25U. S. Naval Academy2.608.9%1st Place
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8.43Roger Williams University2.095.8%1st Place
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11.68George Washington University1.272.8%1st Place
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9.2Tulane University2.044.5%1st Place
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12.01Eckerd College1.342.2%1st Place
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7.42Cornell University2.387.8%1st Place
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11.73North Carolina State University1.092.7%1st Place
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10.81Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.133.5%1st Place
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12.85Jacksonville University1.202.2%1st Place
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11.41Boston University1.392.6%1st Place
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11.17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.413.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Payne Donaldson | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% |
| Javier Garcon | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.4% |
| Aidan Dennis | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.9% |
| Carmen Cowles | 13.0% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Ben Mueller | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 11.7% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 8.9% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| Oliver Stokke | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 2.8% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 11.3% |
| Thad Lettsome | 4.5% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 2.9% |
| matthew Monts | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 14.1% |
| Hayden Earl | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Dana Haig | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% |
| Brent Penwarden | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 12.9% | 19.8% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.5% |
| William Weinbecker | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 7.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.