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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+9.87vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.30+3.17vs Predicted
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3Fordham University1.62+7.99vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.18+0.82vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University1.57+6.87vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College2.29+3.30vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48-0.16vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College2.75-1.63vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island1.81+1.80vs Predicted
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10Florida State University1.62+0.93vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College2.08-1.21vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University2.41-3.60vs Predicted
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13Boston College2.56-4.62vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-4.07vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston2.38-7.19vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College1.88-5.48vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan0.05-1.38vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin1.14-5.40vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.87University of California at Santa Barbara1.443.1%1st Place
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5.17Stanford University3.3013.6%1st Place
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10.99Fordham University1.623.4%1st Place
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4.82Harvard University3.1816.6%1st Place
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11.87Old Dominion University1.572.9%1st Place
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9.3Connecticut College2.295.8%1st Place
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6.84U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.489.0%1st Place
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6.37Dartmouth College2.759.9%1st Place
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10.8University of Rhode Island1.813.6%1st Place
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10.93Florida State University1.623.0%1st Place
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9.79Bowdoin College2.083.1%1st Place
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8.4Georgetown University2.415.5%1st Place
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8.38Boston College2.565.5%1st Place
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9.93Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.773.6%1st Place
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7.81College of Charleston2.385.2%1st Place
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10.52SUNY Maritime College1.883.9%1st Place
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15.62University of Michigan0.050.9%1st Place
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12.6University of Wisconsin1.141.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted McDonough | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 4.8% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 13.6% | 13.2% | 12.3% | 11.9% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 4.7% |
| Justin Callahan | 16.6% | 14.6% | 11.7% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Parker Purrington | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 8.1% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 1.4% |
| Colman Schofield | 9.0% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 9.9% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Joshua Bartoszuk | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 4.0% |
| Joey Meagher | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 4.7% |
| Christopher Lukens | 3.1% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 2.0% |
| Scott Mais | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 2.4% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 5.2% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Spencer Barnes | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 3.2% |
| Luciana Solorzano | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 8.2% | 12.4% | 51.7% |
| Charlie Herrick | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 11.9% | 15.5% | 11.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.