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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.42+4.69vs Predicted
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2University of Miami1.93+8.41vs Predicted
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3Tulane University2.04+6.24vs Predicted
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4George Washington University1.27+7.81vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+2.32vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.91-0.31vs Predicted
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7Tufts University2.22+0.66vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.60-0.72vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.38-1.62vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania1.90-0.77vs Predicted
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11North Carolina State University1.09+0.47vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.13-1.10vs Predicted
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13Webb Institute1.43-2.11vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University2.09-5.45vs Predicted
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15Eckerd College1.34-2.73vs Predicted
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16Boston University1.39-4.76vs Predicted
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17Jacksonville University1.20-4.28vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41-6.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.69Yale University2.4213.7%1st Place
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10.41University of Miami1.933.7%1st Place
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9.24Tulane University2.044.2%1st Place
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11.81George Washington University1.272.5%1st Place
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7.32St. Mary's College of Maryland2.578.6%1st Place
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5.69Brown University2.9112.5%1st Place
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7.66Tufts University2.227.2%1st Place
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7.28U. S. Naval Academy2.608.8%1st Place
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7.38Cornell University2.387.8%1st Place
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9.23University of Pennsylvania1.905.1%1st Place
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11.47North Carolina State University1.092.9%1st Place
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10.9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.133.9%1st Place
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10.89Webb Institute1.433.6%1st Place
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8.55Roger Williams University2.095.9%1st Place
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12.27Eckerd College1.342.1%1st Place
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11.24Boston University1.393.1%1st Place
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12.72Jacksonville University1.201.8%1st Place
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11.26U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.412.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Cowles | 13.7% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Aidan Dennis | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 4.8% |
| Thad Lettsome | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.1% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 12.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 12.5% | 12.6% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Ben Mueller | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.9% |
| Nathan Smith | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Hayden Earl | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Javier Garcon | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 2.5% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 2.9% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.5% |
| Dana Haig | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.5% |
| Payne Donaldson | 3.6% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.6% |
| Oliver Stokke | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| matthew Monts | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 14.5% |
| Noah Robitshek | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 8.1% |
| Brent Penwarden | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 18.8% |
| William Weinbecker | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 9.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.