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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.60+6.13vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.42+3.69vs Predicted
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3Jacksonville University1.70+7.90vs Predicted
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4University of Miami1.93+6.33vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+2.47vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41+5.08vs Predicted
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7Brown University2.91-1.18vs Predicted
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8Webb Institute1.43+3.21vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.13+1.90vs Predicted
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10Tufts University2.22-2.30vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.27+0.73vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania1.90-2.63vs Predicted
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13Cornell University2.38-5.48vs Predicted
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14Eckerd College1.34-1.58vs Predicted
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15Tulane University2.21-3.91vs Predicted
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16Roger Williams University2.09-7.50vs Predicted
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17North Carolina State University1.09-5.55vs Predicted
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18Boston University1.65-7.30vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.13U. S. Naval Academy2.608.6%1st Place
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5.69Yale University2.4212.7%1st Place
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10.9Jacksonville University1.703.1%1st Place
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10.33University of Miami1.934.2%1st Place
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7.47St. Mary's College of Maryland2.578.5%1st Place
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11.08U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.413.1%1st Place
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5.82Brown University2.9111.8%1st Place
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11.21Webb Institute1.432.9%1st Place
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10.9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.133.2%1st Place
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7.7Tufts University2.227.5%1st Place
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11.73George Washington University1.272.8%1st Place
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9.37University of Pennsylvania1.904.7%1st Place
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7.52Cornell University2.388.0%1st Place
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12.42Eckerd College1.342.6%1st Place
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11.09Tulane University2.213.6%1st Place
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8.5Roger Williams University2.096.2%1st Place
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11.45North Carolina State University1.092.9%1st Place
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10.7Boston University1.653.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Carmen Cowles | 12.7% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Igoe | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.2% |
| Aidan Dennis | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 4.3% |
| Owen Hennessey | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| William Weinbecker | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 9.0% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 11.8% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Payne Donaldson | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.3% |
| Dana Haig | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.2% |
| Ben Mueller | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 10.7% | 12.8% |
| Javier Garcon | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 2.8% |
| Hayden Earl | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| matthew Monts | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 16.6% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.4% |
| Oliver Stokke | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.4% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 10.1% |
| Micky Munns | 3.6% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.