Race 2A

north-fall-1

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Olin Paine 29.8% 23.4% 17.4% 13.3% 7.2% 4.1% 2.3% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Tyler Steel 7.9% 10.5% 12.5% 11.8% 12.1% 11.2% 11.1% 9.7% 7.6% 3.2% 2.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Johnny Norfleet 21.2% 20.5% 14.7% 14.4% 11.7% 7.8% 5.4% 2.6% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lukas Edegran 6.9% 9.4% 11.0% 11.6% 10.9% 12.4% 13.2% 9.2% 7.7% 5.1% 2.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Duncan Howes 6.9% 7.4% 8.3% 9.7% 11.3% 13.3% 10.1% 10.0% 10.2% 7.7% 4.1% 1.0% 0.0%
Paul Throop 3.0% 2.6% 4.6% 5.5% 5.8% 7.1% 7.5% 10.6% 13.7% 17.2% 15.2% 7.2% 0.0%
Andrew Bates 9.1% 9.6% 10.5% 10.3% 11.5% 11.1% 11.6% 10.7% 6.6% 5.3% 2.7% 1.0% 0.0%
Nathan Fast 1.7% 4.0% 3.5% 4.2% 4.5% 5.6% 8.4% 8.9% 12.2% 15.7% 20.0% 11.3% 0.0%
Griffin Orr 4.9% 3.6% 7.4% 7.7% 10.4% 11.6% 10.7% 12.7% 13.3% 10.8% 5.1% 1.8% 0.0%
Conor Cashel 6.1% 6.0% 6.8% 7.8% 10.2% 10.2% 12.7% 12.3% 11.5% 9.7% 4.9% 1.8% 0.0%
Jacob Romanowsky 1.3% 1.0% 1.3% 0.8% 2.0% 2.6% 3.0% 4.1% 6.8% 9.7% 19.4% 48.0% 0.0%
Jacob Romanowsky 1.3% 1.0% 1.3% 0.8% 2.0% 2.6% 3.0% 4.1% 6.8% 9.7% 19.4% 48.0% 0.0%
Andrew Beckmann 1.2% 2.0% 2.0% 2.9% 2.4% 3.0% 4.0% 7.5% 8.6% 15.0% 24.3% 27.1% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.