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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College2.56+7.04vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.62+8.68vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.08+6.14vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.30+0.73vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+1.65vs Predicted
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6College of Charleston2.38+1.60vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College2.75-1.04vs Predicted
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8University of Wisconsin1.14+4.46vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island1.81+1.63vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College1.88-0.03vs Predicted
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11Florida State University1.62-0.27vs Predicted
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12Harvard University1.55-0.19vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.57-1.23vs Predicted
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14Georgetown University2.41-5.90vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College2.29-6.28vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-6.58vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara1.44-6.25vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan0.50-4.15vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.04Boston College2.566.5%1st Place
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10.68Fordham University1.623.1%1st Place
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9.14Bowdoin College2.085.1%1st Place
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4.73Stanford University3.3016.2%1st Place
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6.65U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.489.9%1st Place
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7.6College of Charleston2.388.2%1st Place
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5.96Dartmouth College2.7511.8%1st Place
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12.46University of Wisconsin1.142.2%1st Place
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10.63University of Rhode Island1.813.2%1st Place
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9.97SUNY Maritime College1.884.6%1st Place
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10.73Florida State University1.623.0%1st Place
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11.81Harvard University1.552.8%1st Place
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11.77Old Dominion University1.572.2%1st Place
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8.1Georgetown University2.416.5%1st Place
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8.72Connecticut College2.295.4%1st Place
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9.42Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.774.0%1st Place
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10.75University of California at Santa Barbara1.444.0%1st Place
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13.85University of Michigan0.501.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colleen O'Brien | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 5.4% |
| Christopher Lukens | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.9% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 16.2% | 15.1% | 12.4% | 11.4% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Colman Schofield | 9.9% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 11.8% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Charlie Herrick | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 12.5% | 14.8% |
| Joshua Bartoszuk | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 5.6% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 3.5% |
| Joey Meagher | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 5.4% |
| Eric Hansen | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 10.5% |
| Parker Purrington | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 10.7% |
| Scott Mais | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 2.4% |
| Ted McDonough | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 5.9% |
| Brody Schwartz | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 14.1% | 28.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.