Race 3A

north-fall-1

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Olin Paine 29.4% 24.0% 17.1% 12.7% 7.6% 4.9% 2.5% 1.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tyler Steel 7.8% 10.1% 12.4% 11.9% 12.7% 11.2% 11.8% 10.4% 6.1% 3.9% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0%
Lukas Edegran 9.4% 8.5% 10.1% 10.7% 13.0% 11.3% 13.0% 10.3% 7.3% 4.0% 2.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Johnny Norfleet 19.8% 20.4% 17.0% 14.5% 10.8% 8.6% 4.1% 2.9% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Duncan Howes 7.3% 7.2% 8.1% 9.2% 11.4% 11.8% 11.2% 10.8% 9.3% 7.8% 4.8% 1.1% 0.0%
Nathan Fast 2.3% 2.4% 2.7% 4.8% 5.5% 5.2% 5.6% 9.8% 12.1% 19.0% 18.4% 12.2% 0.0%
Conor Cashel 5.8% 6.6% 8.2% 8.5% 9.2% 11.4% 10.3% 10.5% 12.5% 9.8% 5.1% 2.1% 0.0%
Andrew Bates 9.8% 9.8% 10.6% 9.4% 11.3% 10.3% 12.3% 10.4% 8.3% 3.7% 2.9% 1.2% 0.0%
Paul Throop 2.1% 2.6% 3.8% 5.6% 6.2% 9.2% 9.6% 11.3% 14.1% 16.2% 13.8% 5.5% 0.0%
Andrew Beckmann 1.1% 2.0% 2.4% 2.9% 3.0% 3.8% 4.5% 8.0% 8.3% 13.1% 24.3% 26.6% 0.0%
Griffin Orr 4.6% 4.8% 6.8% 7.4% 7.4% 10.1% 11.7% 11.2% 13.5% 11.1% 7.9% 3.5% 0.0%
Jacob Romanowsky 0.6% 1.6% 0.8% 2.4% 1.9% 2.2% 3.4% 3.3% 6.5% 11.0% 19.3% 47.0% 0.0%
Jacob Romanowsky 0.6% 1.6% 0.8% 2.4% 1.9% 2.2% 3.4% 3.3% 6.5% 11.0% 19.3% 47.0% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.