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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.42+4.71vs Predicted
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2Jacksonville University1.70+8.73vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute1.43+8.08vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.60+3.29vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.13+5.63vs Predicted
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6Tufts University2.22+1.86vs Predicted
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7Tulane University2.21+3.99vs Predicted
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8University of Miami1.93+2.51vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania1.90+0.44vs Predicted
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10Eckerd College1.34+2.25vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.27+0.90vs Predicted
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12Brown University2.91-6.34vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-5.55vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.38-6.42vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University2.09-6.38vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41-4.87vs Predicted
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17Boston University1.65-6.34vs Predicted
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18North Carolina State University1.09-6.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.71Yale University2.4212.8%1st Place
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10.73Jacksonville University1.704.0%1st Place
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11.08Webb Institute1.433.2%1st Place
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7.29U. S. Naval Academy2.608.8%1st Place
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10.63Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.133.7%1st Place
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7.86Tufts University2.226.9%1st Place
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10.99Tulane University2.212.9%1st Place
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10.51University of Miami1.933.5%1st Place
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9.44University of Pennsylvania1.904.8%1st Place
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12.25Eckerd College1.342.6%1st Place
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11.9George Washington University1.272.5%1st Place
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5.66Brown University2.9113.6%1st Place
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7.45St. Mary's College of Maryland2.577.8%1st Place
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7.58Cornell University2.387.3%1st Place
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8.62Roger Williams University2.096.1%1st Place
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11.13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.413.4%1st Place
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10.66Boston University1.653.5%1st Place
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11.5North Carolina State University1.092.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Cowles | 12.8% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Igoe | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.5% |
| Payne Donaldson | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 10.2% |
| Nathan Smith | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| Dana Haig | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.8% |
| Ben Mueller | 6.9% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.2% |
| Aidan Dennis | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.6% |
| Javier Garcon | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.2% |
| matthew Monts | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 12.0% | 14.4% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 12.6% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 13.6% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Hayden Earl | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.8% |
| Oliver Stokke | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 1.6% |
| William Weinbecker | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.0% |
| Micky Munns | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.5% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.