← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+5.44vs Predicted
-
2Georgetown University2.41+6.21vs Predicted
-
3Stanford University3.30+1.76vs Predicted
-
4SUNY Maritime College1.88+5.97vs Predicted
-
5Connecticut College2.29+3.61vs Predicted
-
6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+3.44vs Predicted
-
7Old Dominion University1.59+3.14vs Predicted
-
8Fordham University1.62+2.74vs Predicted
-
9University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+1.68vs Predicted
-
10University of Rhode Island1.81+0.58vs Predicted
-
11Florida State University1.62-0.43vs Predicted
-
12Boston College2.56-3.97vs Predicted
-
13Bowdoin College2.08-3.75vs Predicted
-
14College of Charleston2.38-6.57vs Predicted
-
15Dartmouth College2.75-9.00vs Predicted
-
16Harvard University1.55-4.20vs Predicted
-
17University of Michigan0.05-1.41vs Predicted
-
18University of Wisconsin1.09-5.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.44U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.4810.3%1st Place
-
8.21Georgetown University2.416.2%1st Place
-
4.76Stanford University3.3015.0%1st Place
-
9.97SUNY Maritime College1.884.5%1st Place
-
8.61Connecticut College2.296.2%1st Place
-
9.44Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.775.1%1st Place
-
10.14Old Dominion University1.593.8%1st Place
-
10.74Fordham University1.623.5%1st Place
-
10.68University of California at Santa Barbara1.443.6%1st Place
-
10.58University of Rhode Island1.813.4%1st Place
-
10.57Florida State University1.623.8%1st Place
-
8.03Boston College2.565.9%1st Place
-
9.25Bowdoin College2.084.0%1st Place
-
7.43College of Charleston2.387.3%1st Place
-
6.0Dartmouth College2.7512.7%1st Place
-
11.8Harvard University1.552.1%1st Place
-
15.59University of Michigan0.050.8%1st Place
-
12.74University of Wisconsin1.091.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colman Schofield | 10.3% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Scott Mais | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 15.0% | 14.6% | 14.5% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 2.9% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 1.6% |
| Diogo Silva | 3.8% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 2.9% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 3.9% |
| Ted McDonough | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 4.4% |
| Joshua Bartoszuk | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 3.2% |
| Joey Meagher | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 4.2% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Christopher Lukens | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 1.7% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 12.7% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Eric Hansen | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 7.8% |
| Luciana Solorzano | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 13.7% | 51.5% |
| Abe Weston | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 12.2% | 15.4% | 14.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.