Race 4A

north-fall-1

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Paul Throop 3.0% 3.4% 3.7% 5.4% 5.4% 8.2% 8.3% 8.9% 12.8% 17.8% 15.0% 8.1% 0.0%
Johnny Norfleet 19.9% 20.4% 16.2% 14.4% 10.7% 7.5% 6.0% 3.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Olin Paine 31.5% 22.1% 16.4% 14.4% 7.9% 3.7% 2.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nathan Fast 2.1% 2.2% 2.4% 3.8% 4.8% 8.2% 8.0% 9.0% 12.4% 16.8% 18.3% 12.0% 0.0%
Tyler Steel 8.3% 10.5% 12.6% 11.1% 11.4% 10.3% 10.7% 10.9% 6.3% 5.2% 2.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Andrew Bates 7.7% 10.4% 8.8% 10.3% 12.3% 13.7% 11.1% 8.9% 7.4% 6.0% 2.3% 1.1% 0.0%
Duncan Howes 7.5% 8.0% 10.2% 9.2% 10.8% 9.6% 13.0% 10.2% 10.6% 6.4% 3.3% 1.2% 0.0%
Conor Cashel 6.9% 6.0% 7.8% 7.9% 9.7% 10.3% 10.5% 10.5% 13.1% 9.3% 5.4% 2.6% 0.0%
Griffin Orr 4.3% 4.4% 6.3% 8.2% 11.2% 10.8% 12.2% 12.7% 11.9% 9.7% 6.8% 1.5% 0.0%
Jacob Romanowsky 0.8% 1.3% 1.8% 1.9% 2.2% 2.7% 2.6% 4.7% 6.8% 10.3% 20.5% 44.4% 0.0%
Lukas Edegran 7.1% 8.9% 11.5% 10.7% 11.2% 12.4% 11.3% 11.8% 7.2% 4.9% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%
Andrew Beckmann 0.9% 2.4% 2.3% 2.7% 2.4% 2.6% 3.5% 8.2% 10.4% 12.9% 24.1% 27.6% 0.0%
Jacob Romanowsky 0.8% 1.3% 1.8% 1.9% 2.2% 2.7% 2.6% 4.7% 6.8% 10.3% 20.5% 44.4% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.