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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.42+4.00vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.88+8.32vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+3.62vs Predicted
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4Brown University1.72+6.37vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.22+1.73vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.07+4.22vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.28+0.15vs Predicted
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8Boston University1.65+1.97vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.27+1.87vs Predicted
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10North Carolina State University0.77+4.24vs Predicted
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11Eckerd College1.34+0.40vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.13-2.11vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania1.90-4.79vs Predicted
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14University of Miami1.93-4.25vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41-4.94vs Predicted
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16Tulane University2.21-5.84vs Predicted
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17Webb Institute1.43-6.93vs Predicted
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18Jacksonville University1.70-8.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.0Yale University2.4216.7%1st Place
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10.32Cornell University1.883.4%1st Place
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6.62St. Mary's College of Maryland2.579.5%1st Place
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10.37Brown University1.724.2%1st Place
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6.73Tufts University2.229.3%1st Place
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10.22Roger Williams University2.074.7%1st Place
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7.15U. S. Naval Academy2.288.0%1st Place
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9.97Boston University1.654.2%1st Place
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10.87George Washington University1.273.3%1st Place
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14.24North Carolina State University0.771.1%1st Place
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11.4Eckerd College1.342.6%1st Place
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9.89Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.134.5%1st Place
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8.21University of Pennsylvania1.907.3%1st Place
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9.75University of Miami1.934.3%1st Place
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10.06U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.415.0%1st Place
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10.16Tulane University2.214.0%1st Place
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10.07Webb Institute1.434.3%1st Place
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9.95Jacksonville University1.703.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Cowles | 16.7% | 13.4% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Meredith Moran | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 9.5% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Jed Bell | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% |
| Ben Mueller | 9.3% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Cameron Wood | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.2% |
| Jack Welburn | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Micky Munns | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 4.0% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 6.1% |
| Harrison Bailey | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 12.4% | 38.2% |
| matthew Monts | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 9.7% |
| Dana Haig | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 3.7% |
| Javier Garcon | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.4% |
| Aidan Dennis | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 3.4% |
| William Weinbecker | 5.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 4.1% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 3.7% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 4.5% |
| Patrick Igoe | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 3.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.