Race 5A

north-fall-1

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

61.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Olin Paine 28.8% 23.8% 19.0% 13.3% 6.3% 4.2% 2.4% 1.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Johnny Norfleet 20.1% 20.5% 16.0% 14.9% 10.7% 7.1% 5.7% 3.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Tyler Steel 10.5% 8.2% 11.0% 10.4% 12.6% 11.3% 13.1% 10.0% 7.2% 3.6% 1.5% 0.6% 0.0%
Duncan Howes 4.8% 8.3% 9.1% 11.2% 11.2% 11.2% 11.5% 11.3% 9.3% 8.0% 3.1% 1.0% 0.0%
Lukas Edegran 8.6% 8.7% 11.7% 10.4% 11.6% 13.9% 10.5% 8.9% 7.2% 5.6% 2.2% 0.7% 0.0%
Andrew Bates 9.4% 8.4% 8.7% 9.8% 12.4% 12.9% 11.1% 10.7% 7.4% 5.9% 2.8% 0.5% 0.0%
Griffin Orr 5.2% 5.8% 5.8% 8.3% 10.3% 9.8% 9.9% 12.4% 12.1% 11.2% 6.0% 3.2% 0.0%
Nathan Fast 2.1% 3.2% 3.7% 4.9% 4.0% 6.4% 7.1% 9.3% 11.4% 15.7% 21.2% 11.0% 0.0%
Conor Cashel 5.0% 6.0% 7.4% 8.1% 11.7% 10.5% 12.4% 12.7% 11.1% 9.6% 4.3% 1.2% 0.0%
Paul Throop 3.3% 3.9% 4.5% 4.2% 5.6% 7.3% 8.4% 10.2% 14.9% 16.0% 14.4% 7.3% 0.0%
Jacob Romanowsky 1.3% 1.0% 0.9% 1.4% 1.6% 2.5% 3.5% 4.7% 5.4% 10.3% 20.0% 47.4% 0.0%
Jacob Romanowsky 1.3% 1.0% 0.9% 1.4% 1.6% 2.5% 3.5% 4.7% 5.4% 10.3% 20.0% 47.4% 0.0%
Andrew Beckmann 0.9% 2.2% 2.2% 3.1% 2.0% 2.9% 4.4% 5.2% 12.2% 13.4% 24.4% 27.1% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.