← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+5.19vs Predicted
-
2Yale University2.42+2.89vs Predicted
-
3Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.13+6.92vs Predicted
-
4Tufts University2.22+3.12vs Predicted
-
5Tulane University2.21+5.28vs Predicted
-
6University of Pennsylvania1.90+2.49vs Predicted
-
7U. S. Naval Academy2.28+0.28vs Predicted
-
8George Washington University1.27+2.77vs Predicted
-
9University of Miami1.93+0.45vs Predicted
-
10Boston University1.65+0.25vs Predicted
-
11Brown University1.72-0.61vs Predicted
-
12Eckerd College1.34-0.84vs Predicted
-
13Cornell University1.88-2.75vs Predicted
-
14Jacksonville University1.70-4.06vs Predicted
-
15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41-4.90vs Predicted
-
16Webb Institute1.43-6.03vs Predicted
-
17North Carolina State University0.77-2.49vs Predicted
-
18Roger Williams University2.07-7.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.19St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5711.8%1st Place
-
4.89Yale University2.4216.0%1st Place
-
9.92Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.134.2%1st Place
-
7.12Tufts University2.229.4%1st Place
-
10.28Tulane University2.214.0%1st Place
-
8.49University of Pennsylvania1.906.2%1st Place
-
7.28U. S. Naval Academy2.286.8%1st Place
-
10.77George Washington University1.273.5%1st Place
-
9.45University of Miami1.935.3%1st Place
-
10.25Boston University1.653.6%1st Place
-
10.39Brown University1.723.1%1st Place
-
11.16Eckerd College1.343.1%1st Place
-
10.25Cornell University1.884.0%1st Place
-
9.94Jacksonville University1.704.1%1st Place
-
10.1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.414.3%1st Place
-
9.97Webb Institute1.434.8%1st Place
-
14.51North Carolina State University0.771.4%1st Place
-
10.03Roger Williams University2.074.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 11.8% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Carmen Cowles | 16.0% | 15.2% | 13.2% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Dana Haig | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 3.1% |
| Ben Mueller | 9.4% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.3% |
| Javier Garcon | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.6% |
| Jack Welburn | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.2% |
| Aidan Dennis | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 2.9% |
| Micky Munns | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.1% |
| Jed Bell | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 5.4% |
| matthew Monts | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 8.8% |
| Meredith Moran | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.5% |
| Patrick Igoe | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 3.2% |
| William Weinbecker | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 4.2% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.5% |
| Harrison Bailey | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 14.0% | 38.2% |
| Cameron Wood | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 4.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.