Race 8A

north-fall-1

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Olin Paine 28.3% 24.1% 19.8% 11.1% 7.4% 5.3% 2.0% 1.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Griffin Orr 4.3% 5.6% 4.9% 9.1% 10.2% 9.8% 11.5% 10.9% 13.6% 11.5% 6.5% 2.1% 0.0%
Nathan Fast 3.1% 2.9% 3.0% 3.8% 4.6% 5.0% 7.2% 9.9% 11.6% 16.8% 19.7% 12.4% 0.0%
Johnny Norfleet 18.8% 20.9% 17.7% 14.3% 11.4% 7.6% 4.4% 2.9% 1.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Lukas Edegran 8.8% 9.4% 9.5% 11.9% 10.8% 13.6% 10.7% 9.6% 7.6% 5.1% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%
Andrew Beckmann 1.7% 1.2% 1.7% 3.1% 2.9% 5.3% 4.3% 5.2% 7.4% 15.8% 23.0% 28.4% 0.0%
Paul Throop 3.3% 3.9% 4.7% 4.8% 5.8% 7.7% 9.9% 9.6% 14.3% 14.4% 12.8% 8.8% 0.0%
Conor Cashel 6.4% 6.8% 7.6% 7.7% 9.5% 8.6% 11.8% 12.9% 10.2% 10.6% 5.8% 2.1% 0.0%
Jacob Romanowsky 1.1% 1.3% 0.6% 1.2% 1.8% 2.6% 4.5% 4.6% 6.9% 10.9% 21.9% 42.6% 0.0%
Duncan Howes 7.7% 6.5% 8.3% 11.4% 11.5% 10.3% 12.0% 11.7% 9.9% 5.9% 3.7% 1.1% 0.0%
Jacob Romanowsky 1.1% 1.3% 0.6% 1.2% 1.8% 2.6% 4.5% 4.6% 6.9% 10.9% 21.9% 42.6% 0.0%
Tyler Steel 8.1% 9.5% 11.8% 11.0% 12.4% 12.4% 11.1% 9.9% 7.8% 3.3% 1.9% 0.8% 0.0%
Andrew Bates 8.4% 7.9% 10.4% 10.6% 11.7% 11.8% 10.6% 11.6% 8.7% 5.4% 2.3% 0.6% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.