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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.85+4.20vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+4.48vs Predicted
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3Tulane University2.21+6.99vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.13+5.55vs Predicted
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5University of Miami1.93+4.38vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.88+4.13vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.60+2.90vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.28-0.99vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.27+1.61vs Predicted
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10Tufts University2.22-3.17vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.07-1.03vs Predicted
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12Eckerd College1.34-1.00vs Predicted
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13Brown University1.72-2.58vs Predicted
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14Jacksonville University1.70-4.11vs Predicted
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15Boston University1.65-5.14vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41-6.01vs Predicted
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17North Carolina State University0.77-2.34vs Predicted
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18Webb Institute1.43-7.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.2Yale University2.8515.7%1st Place
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6.48St. Mary's College of Maryland2.579.7%1st Place
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9.99Tulane University2.214.8%1st Place
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9.55Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.135.1%1st Place
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9.38University of Miami1.935.1%1st Place
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10.13Cornell University1.883.5%1st Place
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9.9University of Pennsylvania1.604.1%1st Place
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7.01U. S. Naval Academy2.288.6%1st Place
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10.61George Washington University1.274.0%1st Place
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6.83Tufts University2.229.3%1st Place
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9.97Roger Williams University2.074.9%1st Place
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11.0Eckerd College1.343.4%1st Place
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10.42Brown University1.723.5%1st Place
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9.89Jacksonville University1.704.5%1st Place
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9.86Boston University1.653.8%1st Place
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9.99U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.415.1%1st Place
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14.66North Carolina State University0.771.5%1st Place
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10.12Webb Institute1.433.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 15.7% | 13.4% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 9.7% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 4.8% |
| Dana Haig | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.4% |
| Aidan Dennis | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 2.5% |
| Meredith Moran | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.7% |
| Samuel Gavula | 4.1% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.2% |
| Jack Welburn | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.0% |
| Ben Mueller | 9.3% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Cameron Wood | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 3.8% |
| matthew Monts | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 10.8% | 8.3% |
| Jed Bell | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 5.3% |
| Patrick Igoe | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 3.3% |
| Micky Munns | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 3.6% |
| William Weinbecker | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 4.5% |
| Harrison Bailey | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 12.8% | 39.9% |
| Payne Donaldson | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 4.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.