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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+5.57vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.08+7.34vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.75+2.99vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.18+0.63vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.41+2.89vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College1.88+4.01vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.62+3.69vs Predicted
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8Stanford University2.41-0.06vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston2.38-1.51vs Predicted
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10Florida State University1.62+0.83vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island1.81-0.42vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.59-1.66vs Predicted
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13Boston College2.56-4.97vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-4.43vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara1.44-4.25vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan0.05-0.30vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College1.45-5.34vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin1.09-5.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.57U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.489.6%1st Place
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9.34Bowdoin College2.084.8%1st Place
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5.99Dartmouth College2.7510.3%1st Place
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4.63Harvard University3.1816.1%1st Place
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7.89Georgetown University2.417.8%1st Place
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10.01SUNY Maritime College1.884.0%1st Place
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10.69Fordham University1.623.9%1st Place
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7.94Stanford University2.416.5%1st Place
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7.49College of Charleston2.388.2%1st Place
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10.83Florida State University1.622.4%1st Place
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10.58University of Rhode Island1.813.4%1st Place
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10.34Old Dominion University1.593.5%1st Place
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8.03Boston College2.566.8%1st Place
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9.57Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.775.0%1st Place
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10.75University of California at Santa Barbara1.443.4%1st Place
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15.7University of Michigan0.050.7%1st Place
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11.66Connecticut College1.452.0%1st Place
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12.98University of Wisconsin1.091.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colman Schofield | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Christopher Lukens | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 1.6% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 10.3% | 12.4% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Justin Callahan | 16.1% | 16.4% | 12.8% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Mais | 7.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 2.5% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 4.3% |
| Justin Lim | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Joey Meagher | 2.4% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 4.1% |
| Joshua Bartoszuk | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 4.0% |
| Diogo Silva | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 3.4% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 1.7% |
| Ted McDonough | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 3.2% |
| Luciana Solorzano | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 14.1% | 51.9% |
| Harris Padegs | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 6.2% |
| Abe Weston | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 16.4% | 15.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.