Race 10A

north-fall-1

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Olin Paine 28.7% 24.0% 17.4% 12.2% 8.6% 4.4% 2.7% 0.9% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tyler Steel 8.1% 10.5% 11.5% 12.7% 11.9% 10.4% 10.7% 11.6% 6.5% 4.1% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0%
Johnny Norfleet 21.4% 17.5% 18.1% 13.5% 12.8% 8.0% 4.2% 2.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Andrew Beckmann 0.9% 1.9% 2.1% 2.2% 2.5% 3.8% 4.9% 7.2% 11.2% 14.3% 23.6% 25.4% 0.0%
Paul Throop 2.3% 3.9% 4.2% 5.3% 5.1% 8.7% 9.0% 8.8% 13.1% 16.8% 14.4% 8.4% 0.0%
Andrew Bates 8.6% 9.8% 9.7% 9.5% 10.2% 14.2% 11.8% 9.1% 8.3% 5.7% 2.6% 0.5% 0.0%
Griffin Orr 5.3% 5.2% 7.1% 8.2% 9.1% 10.1% 9.2% 13.3% 10.6% 12.7% 7.0% 2.2% 0.0%
Duncan Howes 8.1% 8.4% 8.1% 9.5% 11.4% 9.4% 12.3% 10.3% 10.4% 6.9% 4.0% 1.2% 0.0%
Conor Cashel 5.1% 4.9% 8.2% 9.9% 10.5% 10.7% 12.4% 12.0% 9.8% 8.8% 5.8% 1.9% 0.0%
Jacob Romanowsky 0.8% 1.7% 1.5% 1.8% 2.2% 2.7% 2.7% 4.1% 7.3% 10.3% 20.0% 44.9% 0.0%
Nathan Fast 2.2% 2.6% 2.6% 4.2% 3.6% 5.6% 7.7% 9.9% 13.0% 15.2% 18.8% 14.6% 0.0%
Lukas Edegran 8.5% 9.6% 9.5% 11.0% 12.1% 12.0% 12.4% 10.0% 7.6% 4.7% 2.0% 0.6% 0.0%
Jacob Romanowsky 0.8% 1.7% 1.5% 1.8% 2.2% 2.7% 2.7% 4.1% 7.3% 10.3% 20.0% 44.9% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.