Race 11A

north-fall-1

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Olin Paine 30.5% 22.7% 18.1% 11.9% 7.2% 5.2% 2.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lukas Edegran 7.2% 11.0% 11.7% 10.5% 12.2% 11.1% 12.8% 10.4% 7.2% 4.0% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0%
Johnny Norfleet 21.6% 19.3% 15.7% 13.9% 12.4% 8.1% 4.7% 2.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Tyler Steel 8.1% 9.2% 12.5% 11.5% 14.1% 13.3% 9.6% 9.8% 6.2% 3.7% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0%
James Codega 1.0% 1.6% 2.2% 2.4% 2.9% 3.3% 5.3% 6.6% 10.3% 14.4% 23.0% 27.0% 0.0%
Griffin Orr 5.3% 6.4% 5.9% 6.7% 8.1% 9.6% 11.0% 14.3% 14.2% 11.3% 5.9% 1.3% 0.0%
Andrew Bates 8.7% 10.6% 10.0% 10.6% 11.7% 11.9% 12.1% 8.9% 7.9% 5.0% 1.9% 0.7% 0.0%
Andrew Beckmann 1.1% 2.3% 1.4% 4.1% 3.8% 3.2% 5.7% 6.3% 11.4% 14.3% 25.8% 20.6% 0.0%
Duncan Howes 6.4% 6.4% 10.3% 12.7% 9.9% 13.1% 11.7% 12.7% 7.2% 6.3% 2.9% 0.4% 0.0%
Paul Throop 3.2% 3.8% 5.3% 3.9% 7.3% 6.0% 9.0% 11.2% 15.0% 17.4% 11.8% 6.1% 0.0%
Jacob Romanowsky 1.4% 1.3% 0.8% 0.9% 1.8% 3.4% 3.8% 4.4% 6.3% 12.6% 21.5% 41.8% 0.0%
Jacob Romanowsky 1.4% 1.3% 0.8% 0.9% 1.8% 3.4% 3.8% 4.4% 6.3% 12.6% 21.5% 41.8% 0.0%
Conor Cashel 5.5% 5.4% 6.1% 10.9% 8.6% 11.8% 11.8% 11.4% 13.1% 10.1% 3.9% 1.4% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.