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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+6.66vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.40+3.25vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.38+3.36vs Predicted
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4Hampton University0.58+6.02vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.60+0.29vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+0.42vs Predicted
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7Penn State University0.27+6.77vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.44+2.09vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University0.60+3.26vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania1.77-2.92vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.98-3.59vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.30-3.46vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.59-4.39vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College0.50-1.55vs Predicted
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15Washington College0.19-0.69vs Predicted
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16Columbia University0.44-2.98vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99-5.99vs Predicted
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18Virginia Tech0.67-6.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.66Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.776.6%1st Place
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5.25Georgetown University2.4014.7%1st Place
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6.36Cornell University2.388.8%1st Place
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10.02Hampton University0.583.4%1st Place
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5.29U. S. Naval Academy2.6014.2%1st Place
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6.42St. Mary's College of Maryland2.579.7%1st Place
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13.77Penn State University0.271.2%1st Place
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10.09George Washington University1.443.5%1st Place
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12.26Christopher Newport University0.602.4%1st Place
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7.08University of Pennsylvania1.778.0%1st Place
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7.41Fordham University1.987.3%1st Place
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8.54Webb Institute1.305.7%1st Place
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8.61Old Dominion University1.594.6%1st Place
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12.45SUNY Maritime College0.501.6%1st Place
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14.31Washington College0.191.7%1st Place
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13.02Columbia University0.441.8%1st Place
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11.01U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.992.4%1st Place
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11.44Virginia Tech0.672.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 14.7% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 8.8% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Brown | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 2.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 14.2% | 12.8% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 9.7% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Joseph Murphy | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 15.0% | 20.8% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 1.8% |
| Aston Atherton | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 10.9% |
| Sofia Segalla | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Jacob Zils | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Everett Botwinick | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Diogo Silva | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 12.6% | 10.1% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 16.2% | 27.4% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 11.9% | 14.2% | 14.5% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 4.2% |
| James Lilyquist | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 5.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.