Race 12A

north-fall-1

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Olin Paine 30.2% 23.3% 17.5% 12.5% 7.7% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lukas Edegran 7.6% 10.9% 10.5% 10.2% 12.4% 12.9% 12.0% 10.7% 6.7% 4.4% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0%
Tyler Steel 10.7% 9.6% 10.1% 10.8% 12.5% 12.2% 13.5% 9.6% 6.2% 2.6% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Johnny Norfleet 20.2% 20.4% 17.0% 14.3% 12.1% 7.0% 4.9% 2.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Griffin Orr 4.2% 6.5% 6.5% 7.6% 9.1% 9.7% 11.4% 11.7% 14.9% 10.4% 5.9% 2.1% 0.0%
James Codega 1.6% 1.0% 1.2% 3.0% 4.0% 3.1% 4.8% 5.6% 9.1% 16.1% 23.9% 26.6% 0.0%
Andrew Bates 8.8% 9.9% 9.6% 11.4% 12.5% 12.6% 11.4% 9.7% 6.8% 4.9% 2.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Conor Cashel 6.1% 6.6% 7.6% 8.3% 8.9% 11.3% 12.0% 11.8% 12.4% 8.7% 4.1% 2.2% 0.0%
Duncan Howes 5.8% 6.9% 11.0% 12.2% 10.9% 12.2% 11.9% 11.2% 9.3% 6.0% 2.0% 0.6% 0.0%
Jacob Romanowsky 0.6% 1.1% 1.9% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.7% 5.2% 7.4% 13.4% 21.8% 38.4% 0.0%
Paul Throop 2.8% 2.5% 4.3% 4.6% 5.2% 7.8% 9.0% 12.6% 15.0% 15.8% 13.9% 6.5% 0.0%
Jacob Romanowsky 0.6% 1.1% 1.9% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.7% 5.2% 7.4% 13.4% 21.8% 38.4% 0.0%
Andrew Beckmann 1.4% 1.3% 2.8% 2.6% 2.2% 3.7% 4.4% 7.8% 11.0% 17.4% 22.6% 22.8% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.