← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+8.28vs Predicted
-
2Fordham University1.62+8.63vs Predicted
-
3University of Rhode Island1.81+7.70vs Predicted
-
4Georgetown University2.42+3.53vs Predicted
-
5Boston College2.56+2.90vs Predicted
-
6SUNY Maritime College1.88+4.15vs Predicted
-
7University of Michigan0.50+6.72vs Predicted
-
8College of Charleston2.38-0.43vs Predicted
-
9Old Dominion University1.59+1.32vs Predicted
-
10Dartmouth College2.75-3.92vs Predicted
-
11U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48-4.31vs Predicted
-
12Harvard University3.18-7.40vs Predicted
-
13Stanford University2.41-5.20vs Predicted
-
14University of California at Santa Barbara1.44-3.23vs Predicted
-
15Bowdoin College2.08-5.85vs Predicted
-
16University of Wisconsin1.14-3.74vs Predicted
-
17Connecticut College0.27-1.88vs Predicted
-
18Florida State University1.62-7.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
9.28Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.774.9%1st Place
-
10.63Fordham University1.623.3%1st Place
-
10.7University of Rhode Island1.813.0%1st Place
-
7.53Georgetown University2.428.0%1st Place
-
7.9Boston College2.565.9%1st Place
-
10.15SUNY Maritime College1.883.8%1st Place
-
13.72University of Michigan0.501.2%1st Place
-
7.57College of Charleston2.387.1%1st Place
-
10.32Old Dominion University1.594.0%1st Place
-
6.08Dartmouth College2.7511.5%1st Place
-
6.69U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.488.3%1st Place
-
4.6Harvard University3.1818.1%1st Place
-
7.8Stanford University2.417.2%1st Place
-
10.77University of California at Santa Barbara1.442.9%1st Place
-
9.15Bowdoin College2.084.3%1st Place
-
12.26University of Wisconsin1.142.5%1st Place
-
15.12Connecticut College0.270.6%1st Place
-
10.73Florida State University1.623.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 1.8% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 3.9% |
| Joshua Bartoszuk | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 4.1% |
| Enzo Menditto | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Spencer Barnes | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 2.8% |
| Brody Schwartz | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 17.4% | 21.1% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Diogo Silva | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 3.4% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 11.5% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Colman Schofield | 8.3% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Justin Callahan | 18.1% | 14.5% | 13.5% | 11.5% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Justin Lim | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Ted McDonough | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 4.5% |
| Christopher Lukens | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 1.1% |
| Charlie Herrick | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 12.8% | 10.7% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 15.6% | 40.9% |
| Joey Meagher | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 4.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.