Race 10B

north-fall-1

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Julia Paxton 9.3% 9.3% 10.6% 13.2% 13.4% 12.3% 11.4% 11.0% 6.3% 2.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Alden Sonnenfeldt 7.0% 8.9% 11.5% 11.0% 12.8% 13.7% 12.0% 10.2% 7.1% 4.8% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alex Jacob 21.1% 19.6% 17.6% 13.1% 11.1% 8.3% 4.9% 2.6% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Irene Jacqz 6.4% 9.0% 10.3% 11.7% 12.7% 11.5% 14.3% 10.4% 8.8% 4.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Louis Padnos 26.6% 24.3% 15.9% 12.3% 8.2% 6.8% 3.2% 1.7% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charles Peck 8.2% 9.8% 8.6% 12.2% 13.1% 12.3% 13.0% 10.8% 7.1% 4.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Robert Boger 10.5% 8.9% 12.2% 12.0% 11.5% 11.2% 10.9% 11.7% 7.1% 2.8% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Luke Miller 3.0% 3.5% 4.1% 4.6% 5.3% 6.2% 9.7% 12.4% 18.7% 20.6% 10.9% 1.0% 0.0%
David Kagan 1.7% 1.5% 1.6% 2.5% 2.5% 5.3% 6.9% 9.0% 15.5% 29.5% 22.5% 1.5% 0.0%
Dylan Froriep 4.9% 4.2% 6.5% 6.1% 8.2% 10.5% 10.1% 15.7% 18.3% 11.3% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Matthew Pavlos 1.1% 0.9% 1.0% 1.2% 1.0% 1.7% 3.3% 4.0% 8.0% 18.0% 52.1% 7.7% 0.0%
Matthew Pavlos 1.1% 0.9% 1.0% 1.2% 1.0% 1.7% 3.3% 4.0% 8.0% 18.0% 52.1% 7.7% 0.0%
Dalton Winternheimer 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.7% 1.8% 6.2% 89.6% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.