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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University1.80+11.09vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.55+3.85vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.30+0.95vs Predicted
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4Harvard University2.10+3.72vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.88+4.61vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.63+2.74vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.60+3.66vs Predicted
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8Tufts University0.69+4.57vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania1.72+0.62vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland0.61+2.73vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida1.09+0.05vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College1.87-3.45vs Predicted
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13Boston College2.40-5.77vs Predicted
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14Tulane University1.73-4.85vs Predicted
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15Bowdoin College1.84-6.02vs Predicted
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16U. S. Naval Academy0.52-2.39vs Predicted
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17College of Charleston1.81-8.92vs Predicted
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18Georgetown University1.37-7.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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12.09Brown University1.802.3%1st Place
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5.85Yale University2.5511.6%1st Place
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3.95Stanford University3.3020.8%1st Place
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7.72Harvard University2.107.1%1st Place
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9.61Cornell University1.884.9%1st Place
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8.74Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.635.0%1st Place
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10.66U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.603.8%1st Place
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12.57Tufts University0.691.7%1st Place
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9.62University of Pennsylvania1.723.1%1st Place
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12.73St. Mary's College of Maryland0.612.1%1st Place
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11.05University of South Florida1.093.5%1st Place
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8.55Dartmouth College1.875.8%1st Place
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7.23Boston College2.407.8%1st Place
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9.15Tulane University1.734.8%1st Place
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8.98Bowdoin College1.845.1%1st Place
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13.61U. S. Naval Academy0.521.6%1st Place
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8.08College of Charleston1.815.9%1st Place
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10.82Georgetown University1.373.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaire McCarthy | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 11.7% |
| Emma Cowles | 11.6% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 20.8% | 18.8% | 13.5% | 12.2% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cordelia Burn | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.9% |
| Meredith Moran | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 2.5% |
| Lucy Brock | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.4% |
| Emma Snead | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 5.8% |
| Samantha Jensen | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 15.9% |
| Torrey Chisari | 3.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 2.7% |
| Lily Flack | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 17.6% |
| Emma Shakespeare | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 6.6% |
| Gray Hemans | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Caroline Benson | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.0% |
| Lauren Russler | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.6% |
| Aubin Hattendorf | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 14.2% | 23.8% |
| Emma Tallman | 5.9% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Riley Kloc | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 5.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.