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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College1.84+8.09vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.40+5.45vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.77+4.99vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.55+1.74vs Predicted
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5Harvard University2.10+2.55vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.88+3.87vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University1.37+3.88vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland0.61+4.86vs Predicted
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9University of South Florida1.09+2.04vs Predicted
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10Stanford University3.30-5.89vs Predicted
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11Tulane University1.73-1.91vs Predicted
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12College of Charleston1.81-3.65vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College1.87-4.43vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.60-3.35vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania1.72-5.42vs Predicted
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16Brown University1.80-3.84vs Predicted
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17Tufts University0.69-4.38vs Predicted
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18U. S. Naval Academy0.52-4.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.09Bowdoin College1.845.0%1st Place
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7.45Boston College2.407.3%1st Place
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7.99Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.775.8%1st Place
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5.74Yale University2.5511.9%1st Place
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7.55Harvard University2.108.0%1st Place
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9.87Cornell University1.883.6%1st Place
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10.88Georgetown University1.372.3%1st Place
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12.86St. Mary's College of Maryland0.611.9%1st Place
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11.04University of South Florida1.092.9%1st Place
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4.11Stanford University3.3020.0%1st Place
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9.09Tulane University1.735.1%1st Place
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8.35College of Charleston1.815.9%1st Place
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8.57Dartmouth College1.876.2%1st Place
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10.65U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.603.8%1st Place
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9.58University of Pennsylvania1.724.4%1st Place
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12.16Brown University1.802.7%1st Place
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12.62Tufts University0.691.8%1st Place
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13.41U. S. Naval Academy0.521.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Russler | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.6% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.0% |
| Emma Cowles | 11.9% | 12.7% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Cordelia Burn | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Meredith Moran | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 3.0% |
| Riley Kloc | 2.3% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 5.7% |
| Lily Flack | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 18.6% |
| Emma Shakespeare | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 6.1% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 20.0% | 16.4% | 14.8% | 12.7% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Caroline Benson | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.7% |
| Emma Tallman | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Gray Hemans | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| Emma Snead | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.1% |
| Torrey Chisari | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 2.2% |
| Blaire McCarthy | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 12.1% |
| Samantha Jensen | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 16.6% |
| Aubin Hattendorf | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 10.4% | 13.7% | 22.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.