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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+5.57vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.77+5.17vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.38+3.18vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute1.30+4.43vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.98+2.56vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.40-0.70vs Predicted
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7Columbia University0.44+6.12vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-0.20vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University0.60+3.14vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+1.28vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.44-1.00vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College0.50+0.31vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.59-4.33vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy2.60-8.73vs Predicted
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15Virginia Tech0.67-3.52vs Predicted
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16Penn State University0.27-2.57vs Predicted
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17Washington College0.19-2.76vs Predicted
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18Hampton University0.58-7.95vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.57St. Mary's College of Maryland2.579.2%1st Place
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7.17University of Pennsylvania1.777.5%1st Place
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6.18Cornell University2.3810.0%1st Place
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8.43Webb Institute1.305.7%1st Place
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7.56Fordham University1.988.2%1st Place
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5.3Georgetown University2.4014.0%1st Place
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13.12Columbia University0.441.8%1st Place
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7.8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.776.6%1st Place
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12.14Christopher Newport University0.601.9%1st Place
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11.28U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.992.1%1st Place
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10.0George Washington University1.444.2%1st Place
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12.31SUNY Maritime College0.502.1%1st Place
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8.67Old Dominion University1.594.8%1st Place
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5.27U. S. Naval Academy2.6013.0%1st Place
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11.48Virginia Tech0.672.5%1st Place
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13.43Penn State University0.271.2%1st Place
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14.24Washington College0.191.4%1st Place
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10.05Hampton University0.583.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Sofia Segalla | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Bridget Green | 10.0% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Everett Botwinick | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Jacob Zils | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 14.0% | 12.8% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 14.1% | 17.1% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Aston Atherton | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 8.9% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 4.7% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 2.4% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 12.2% | 10.3% |
| Diogo Silva | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Nathan Smith | 13.0% | 12.4% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| James Lilyquist | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 5.9% |
| Joseph Murphy | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 15.0% | 18.1% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 15.1% | 28.5% |
| Tyler Brown | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 2.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.