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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.40+4.26vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.77+5.24vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.38+3.34vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+2.38vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.98+2.45vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.59+2.56vs Predicted
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7Columbia University0.44+5.90vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+3.18vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.60-3.66vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.44-0.01vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute1.30-2.44vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-4.29vs Predicted
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13Virginia Tech0.67-1.62vs Predicted
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14Hampton University0.58-4.21vs Predicted
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15Washington College0.19-0.46vs Predicted
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16Penn State University0.27-2.46vs Predicted
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17Christopher Newport University0.60-4.56vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College0.50-5.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.26Georgetown University2.4014.0%1st Place
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7.24University of Pennsylvania1.778.2%1st Place
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6.34Cornell University2.389.5%1st Place
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6.38St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5710.1%1st Place
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7.45Fordham University1.986.6%1st Place
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8.56Old Dominion University1.595.2%1st Place
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12.9Columbia University0.441.7%1st Place
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11.18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.992.4%1st Place
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5.34U. S. Naval Academy2.6012.3%1st Place
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9.99George Washington University1.443.6%1st Place
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8.56Webb Institute1.305.9%1st Place
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7.71Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.776.9%1st Place
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11.38Virginia Tech0.672.9%1st Place
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9.79Hampton University0.584.3%1st Place
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14.54Washington College0.190.8%1st Place
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13.54Penn State University0.271.7%1st Place
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12.44Christopher Newport University0.601.9%1st Place
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12.38SUNY Maritime College0.502.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateo Di Blasi | 14.0% | 12.0% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Sofia Segalla | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Bridget Green | 9.5% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 10.1% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Zils | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Diogo Silva | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 11.4% | 13.2% | 14.9% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 4.5% |
| Nathan Smith | 12.3% | 12.3% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 1.9% |
| Everett Botwinick | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| James Lilyquist | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 6.7% |
| Tyler Brown | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 1.2% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 0.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 9.2% | 12.0% | 17.2% | 27.9% |
| Joseph Murphy | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 14.9% | 19.7% |
| Aston Atherton | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 11.2% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 2.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 11.8% | 9.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.