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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.60+4.42vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+4.54vs Predicted
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3Fordham University1.98+4.57vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania1.77+3.15vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.40+0.37vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.38+0.26vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.44+2.78vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University1.59+0.65vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+2.06vs Predicted
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10Columbia University0.44+2.98vs Predicted
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11Hampton University0.58-0.99vs Predicted
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12Penn State University0.27+1.54vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-5.46vs Predicted
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14Webb Institute1.30-5.67vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University0.60-2.67vs Predicted
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16Washington College0.19-1.57vs Predicted
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17Virginia Tech0.67-5.43vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College0.50-5.55vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.42U. S. Naval Academy2.6013.5%1st Place
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6.54St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5710.6%1st Place
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7.57Fordham University1.986.7%1st Place
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7.15University of Pennsylvania1.778.1%1st Place
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5.37Georgetown University2.4013.5%1st Place
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6.26Cornell University2.3810.1%1st Place
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9.78George Washington University1.443.5%1st Place
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8.65Old Dominion University1.595.9%1st Place
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11.06U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.992.5%1st Place
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12.98Columbia University0.441.6%1st Place
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10.01Hampton University0.583.6%1st Place
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13.54Penn State University0.271.3%1st Place
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7.54Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.777.0%1st Place
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8.33Webb Institute1.305.3%1st Place
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12.33Christopher Newport University0.601.9%1st Place
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14.43Washington College0.191.0%1st Place
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11.57Virginia Tech0.672.5%1st Place
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12.45SUNY Maritime College0.501.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith | 13.5% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 10.6% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Zils | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Sofia Segalla | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 13.5% | 13.2% | 12.2% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Bridget Green | 10.1% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 1.4% |
| Diogo Silva | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 4.9% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 14.5% | 13.4% |
| Tyler Brown | 3.6% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 2.2% |
| Joseph Murphy | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 13.7% | 20.6% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Everett Botwinick | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Aston Atherton | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 10.1% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 17.2% | 28.3% |
| James Lilyquist | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 6.6% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 10.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.