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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.40+4.29vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.60+3.25vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.38+3.25vs Predicted
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4Columbia University0.44+8.90vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.98+2.55vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.77+0.99vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+4.13vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-1.46vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.59-0.24vs Predicted
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10Penn State University0.27+3.59vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.44-0.87vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College0.50+0.26vs Predicted
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13Hampton University0.58-2.86vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-6.51vs Predicted
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15Webb Institute1.30-6.59vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University0.60-3.67vs Predicted
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17Washington College0.19-2.58vs Predicted
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18Virginia Tech0.67-6.44vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.29Georgetown University2.4013.7%1st Place
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5.25U. S. Naval Academy2.6012.8%1st Place
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6.25Cornell University2.3810.8%1st Place
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12.9Columbia University0.441.8%1st Place
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7.55Fordham University1.987.1%1st Place
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6.99University of Pennsylvania1.777.9%1st Place
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11.13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.992.2%1st Place
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6.54St. Mary's College of Maryland2.579.2%1st Place
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8.76Old Dominion University1.594.2%1st Place
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13.59Penn State University0.271.4%1st Place
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10.13George Washington University1.444.0%1st Place
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12.26SUNY Maritime College0.502.1%1st Place
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10.14Hampton University0.583.5%1st Place
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7.49Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.777.8%1st Place
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8.41Webb Institute1.306.1%1st Place
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12.33Christopher Newport University0.602.1%1st Place
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14.42Washington College0.190.9%1st Place
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11.56Virginia Tech0.672.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateo Di Blasi | 13.7% | 12.4% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 12.8% | 12.6% | 12.2% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 10.8% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 13.5% | 13.3% |
| Jacob Zils | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Sofia Segalla | 7.9% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 5.3% |
| Owen Hennessey | 9.2% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Diogo Silva | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Joseph Murphy | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 16.2% | 18.6% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.2% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 10.4% |
| Tyler Brown | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.5% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Everett Botwinick | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.9% |
| Aston Atherton | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 9.0% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 16.2% | 30.0% |
| James Lilyquist | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 6.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.