← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Fordham University1.98+6.48vs Predicted
-
2Cornell University2.38+4.29vs Predicted
-
3Georgetown University2.40+2.50vs Predicted
-
4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+2.48vs Predicted
-
5University of Pennsylvania1.77+2.05vs Predicted
-
6U. S. Naval Academy2.60-0.59vs Predicted
-
7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+0.80vs Predicted
-
8Penn State University0.27+5.33vs Predicted
-
9Webb Institute1.30-0.61vs Predicted
-
10George Washington University1.44+0.14vs Predicted
-
11Washington College0.19+3.48vs Predicted
-
12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99-0.76vs Predicted
-
13Columbia University0.44-0.05vs Predicted
-
14Hampton University0.58-4.18vs Predicted
-
15Old Dominion University1.59-6.44vs Predicted
-
16SUNY Maritime College0.50-3.49vs Predicted
-
17Virginia Tech0.67-5.57vs Predicted
-
18Christopher Newport University0.60-5.85vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
7.48Fordham University1.986.6%1st Place
-
6.29Cornell University2.389.4%1st Place
-
5.5Georgetown University2.4014.1%1st Place
-
6.48St. Mary's College of Maryland2.579.6%1st Place
-
7.05University of Pennsylvania1.778.6%1st Place
-
5.41U. S. Naval Academy2.6012.3%1st Place
-
7.8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.776.5%1st Place
-
13.33Penn State University0.271.3%1st Place
-
8.39Webb Institute1.305.0%1st Place
-
10.14George Washington University1.444.2%1st Place
-
14.48Washington College0.191.1%1st Place
-
11.24U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.992.8%1st Place
-
12.95Columbia University0.441.7%1st Place
-
9.82Hampton University0.584.2%1st Place
-
8.56Old Dominion University1.596.5%1st Place
-
12.51SUNY Maritime College0.501.8%1st Place
-
11.43Virginia Tech0.672.6%1st Place
-
12.15Christopher Newport University0.601.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Zils | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Bridget Green | 9.4% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 14.1% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 12.3% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Joseph Murphy | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 14.1% | 18.2% |
| Everett Botwinick | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 4.2% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 2.1% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 15.2% | 30.7% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 4.5% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 9.9% | 12.2% | 13.9% | 14.0% |
| Tyler Brown | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.5% |
| Diogo Silva | 6.5% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 1.8% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 12.6% | 10.2% |
| James Lilyquist | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 6.5% |
| Aston Atherton | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 12.3% | 9.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.