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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College3.60+9.02vs Predicted
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2University of Virginia3.54+8.28vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.90+5.75vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University4.74+1.26vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.99+3.12vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.72+3.23vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.81+5.92vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University4.71-2.62vs Predicted
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9Harvard University3.49+1.21vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland3.96-1.45vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College3.78-1.87vs Predicted
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12Boston College3.88-2.98vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University4.01-5.05vs Predicted
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14University of Miami2.83-1.37vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida3.49-4.80vs Predicted
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16Dartmouth College4.05-8.05vs Predicted
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17Washington College3.07-4.86vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania2.68-4.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.02SUNY Maritime College3.600.0%1st Place
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10.28University of Virginia3.540.0%1st Place
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8.75Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.900.1%1st Place
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5.26Georgetown University4.740.1%1st Place
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8.12U. S. Naval Academy3.990.1%1st Place
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9.23Stanford University3.720.0%1st Place
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12.92U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.810.0%1st Place
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5.38Roger Williams University4.710.1%1st Place
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10.21Harvard University3.490.0%1st Place
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8.55St. Mary's College of Maryland3.960.1%1st Place
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9.13Connecticut College3.780.1%1st Place
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9.02Boston College3.880.1%1st Place
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7.95Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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12.63University of Miami2.830.0%1st Place
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10.2University of South Florida3.490.0%1st Place
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7.95Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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12.14Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
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13.26University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Scott | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.7% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 3.5% |
| Andrew Sommer | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 1.2% |
| Chris Barnard | 14.7% | 13.5% | 12.8% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Michael Reindl | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Oliver Toole | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.8% |
| Bradley Milliken | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 14.0% | 18.6% |
| Alec Anderson | 13.0% | 14.7% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Brian Drumm | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 3.6% |
| Victor Diaz De Leon | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| Kevin Martland | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 2.4% |
| Alex Cook | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.1% |
| Dillon Paiva | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Taylor Scheuermann | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 10.3% | 13.4% | 17.2% |
| Will Stocke | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 4.5% |
| Matthew Wefer | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 13.7% |
| Michael Russom | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 10.8% | 12.8% | 22.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.