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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+5.45vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.38+4.26vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.60+2.35vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+7.07vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.40+0.32vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.44+3.99vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+0.48vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University0.60+4.33vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.59-0.24vs Predicted
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10Penn State University0.27+3.54vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.98-3.45vs Predicted
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12Columbia University0.44+0.94vs Predicted
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13Hampton University0.58-3.11vs Predicted
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14Washington College0.19+0.43vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania1.77-7.79vs Predicted
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16Virginia Tech0.67-4.45vs Predicted
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17Webb Institute1.30-8.53vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College0.50-5.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.45St. Mary's College of Maryland2.579.1%1st Place
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6.26Cornell University2.3810.2%1st Place
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5.35U. S. Naval Academy2.6013.1%1st Place
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11.07U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.993.8%1st Place
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5.32Georgetown University2.4012.8%1st Place
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9.99George Washington University1.443.5%1st Place
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7.48Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.776.5%1st Place
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12.33Christopher Newport University0.601.9%1st Place
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8.76Old Dominion University1.595.6%1st Place
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13.54Penn State University0.271.4%1st Place
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7.55Fordham University1.987.2%1st Place
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12.94Columbia University0.442.1%1st Place
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9.89Hampton University0.584.0%1st Place
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14.43Washington College0.191.1%1st Place
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7.21University of Pennsylvania1.777.2%1st Place
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11.55Virginia Tech0.672.9%1st Place
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8.47Webb Institute1.305.5%1st Place
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12.42SUNY Maritime College0.502.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 9.1% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 10.2% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 13.1% | 12.7% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Reed McAllister | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 4.3% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 12.8% | 12.3% | 11.1% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 2.1% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Aston Atherton | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 10.2% |
| Diogo Silva | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| Joseph Murphy | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 15.4% | 19.9% |
| Jacob Zils | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 13.4% | 13.4% |
| Tyler Brown | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 1.4% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 10.8% | 14.9% | 30.9% |
| Sofia Segalla | 7.2% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| James Lilyquist | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 6.0% |
| Everett Botwinick | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 10.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.