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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.40+4.41vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.38+4.21vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.60+2.22vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.98+3.56vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+1.50vs Predicted
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6Christopher Newport University0.60+6.39vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.59+1.67vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.44+2.15vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+2.13vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute1.30-1.67vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-3.30vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania1.77-4.83vs Predicted
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13Hampton University0.58-3.18vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College0.50-1.40vs Predicted
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15Virginia Tech0.67-3.55vs Predicted
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16Columbia University0.44-3.16vs Predicted
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17Washington College0.19-2.79vs Predicted
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18Penn State University0.27-4.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.41Georgetown University2.4011.9%1st Place
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6.21Cornell University2.389.9%1st Place
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5.22U. S. Naval Academy2.6013.7%1st Place
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7.56Fordham University1.987.5%1st Place
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6.5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.578.4%1st Place
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12.39Christopher Newport University0.601.8%1st Place
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8.67Old Dominion University1.595.8%1st Place
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10.15George Washington University1.443.2%1st Place
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11.13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.993.2%1st Place
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8.33Webb Institute1.306.2%1st Place
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7.7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.777.1%1st Place
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7.17University of Pennsylvania1.777.6%1st Place
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9.82Hampton University0.584.3%1st Place
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12.6SUNY Maritime College0.502.1%1st Place
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11.45Virginia Tech0.672.5%1st Place
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12.84Columbia University0.442.0%1st Place
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14.21Washington College0.191.1%1st Place
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13.64Penn State University0.271.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateo Di Blasi | 11.9% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 9.9% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 13.7% | 13.4% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Zils | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Owen Hennessey | 8.4% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Aston Atherton | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 10.4% |
| Diogo Silva | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 2.1% |
| Reed McAllister | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 5.1% |
| Everett Botwinick | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Sofia Segalla | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Brown | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 1.5% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 11.5% | 11.9% | 12.2% | 9.8% |
| James Lilyquist | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 6.0% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 13.3% | 14.0% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 12.4% | 15.1% | 28.1% |
| Joseph Murphy | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 15.3% | 21.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.