← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+5.19vs Predicted
-
2Georgetown University2.40+3.30vs Predicted
-
3Fordham University1.98+4.02vs Predicted
-
4University of Pennsylvania1.77+2.80vs Predicted
-
5Cornell University2.38+1.01vs Predicted
-
6Webb Institute1.30+2.05vs Predicted
-
7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+3.68vs Predicted
-
8Virginia Tech0.67+2.78vs Predicted
-
9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-1.78vs Predicted
-
10U. S. Naval Academy2.60-4.90vs Predicted
-
11Penn State University0.27+1.78vs Predicted
-
12Old Dominion University1.59-3.63vs Predicted
-
13SUNY Maritime College0.50-1.25vs Predicted
-
14Christopher Newport University0.60-2.21vs Predicted
-
15Hampton University0.58-5.58vs Predicted
-
16Washington College0.19-2.49vs Predicted
-
17Columbia University0.44-4.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.19St. Mary's College of Maryland2.579.4%1st Place
-
5.3Georgetown University2.4013.0%1st Place
-
7.02Fordham University1.987.5%1st Place
-
6.8University of Pennsylvania1.778.9%1st Place
-
6.01Cornell University2.3810.8%1st Place
-
8.05Webb Institute1.306.2%1st Place
-
10.68U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.992.9%1st Place
-
10.78Virginia Tech0.673.8%1st Place
-
7.22Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.777.2%1st Place
-
5.1U. S. Naval Academy2.6012.0%1st Place
-
12.78Penn State University0.271.6%1st Place
-
8.37Old Dominion University1.595.5%1st Place
-
11.75SUNY Maritime College0.502.1%1st Place
-
11.79Christopher Newport University0.602.0%1st Place
-
9.42Hampton University0.584.3%1st Place
-
13.51Washington College0.190.8%1st Place
-
12.25Columbia University0.441.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 9.4% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 13.0% | 13.3% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Zils | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Sofia Segalla | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Bridget Green | 10.8% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Everett Botwinick | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.9% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 5.1% |
| James Lilyquist | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 5.5% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 12.0% | 14.1% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Murphy | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 16.0% | 20.5% |
| Diogo Silva | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 10.3% |
| Aston Atherton | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 12.0% | 11.3% |
| Tyler Brown | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 2.1% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 12.2% | 16.0% | 28.7% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 12.0% | 14.7% | 14.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.