← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Georgetown University5.19+2.76vs Predicted
-
2St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83+2.65vs Predicted
-
3University of Pennsylvania3.63+5.74vs Predicted
-
4University of Virginia3.54+4.71vs Predicted
-
5Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49+0.56vs Predicted
-
6SUNY Maritime College4.15+0.72vs Predicted
-
7U. S. Naval Academy4.34-0.96vs Predicted
-
8Fordham University3.53+0.82vs Predicted
-
9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42+0.23vs Predicted
-
10Colgate University2.53+2.70vs Predicted
-
11Princeton University1.50+4.42vs Predicted
-
12Ocean County College2.88-0.41vs Predicted
-
13Columbia University1.99+0.97vs Predicted
-
14Cornell University2.89-3.05vs Predicted
-
15George Washington University2.84-3.61vs Predicted
-
16Hampton University1.86-1.43vs Predicted
-
17Old Dominion University3.76-8.79vs Predicted
-
18Washington College3.19-8.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.76Georgetown University5.190.2%1st Place
-
4.65St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.1%1st Place
-
8.74University of Pennsylvania3.630.0%1st Place
-
8.71University of Virginia3.540.0%1st Place
-
5.56Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
-
6.72SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
-
6.04U. S. Naval Academy4.340.1%1st Place
-
8.82Fordham University3.530.0%1st Place
-
9.23U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.0%1st Place
-
12.7Colgate University2.530.0%1st Place
-
15.42Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
-
11.59Ocean County College2.880.0%1st Place
-
13.97Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
-
10.95Cornell University2.890.0%1st Place
-
11.39George Washington University2.840.0%1st Place
-
14.57Hampton University1.860.0%1st Place
-
8.21Old Dominion University3.760.1%1st Place
-
9.96Washington College3.190.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Buckingham | 22.1% | 17.6% | 15.4% | 11.7% | 10.8% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Menninger | 13.7% | 13.7% | 15.1% | 12.6% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Halsey Richartz | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Samuel Blouin | 11.7% | 12.2% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shawn Murray | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Robert Vann | 9.5% | 11.1% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Carl Shorett | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Gary Herring | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Scott Layton | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 14.2% | 10.9% | 7.7% |
| Gene Merewether | 0.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 10.2% | 19.9% | 38.9% |
| Tyler Kennedy | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 3.4% |
| John Croll | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 15.3% | 18.0% | 17.1% |
| Vincent Andrews | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 3.0% |
| William Ricketson | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 3.5% |
| Shane Horsford | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 13.0% | 18.8% | 23.8% |
| Stephanie Roble | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Conner Blouin | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.