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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University3.48+4.31vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.92+5.20vs Predicted
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3Yale University4.10+0.73vs Predicted
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4Boston University2.74+4.04vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University2.34+4.35vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.82+1.67vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.51+1.78vs Predicted
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8Harvard University2.53+0.48vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.38+0.12vs Predicted
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10Salve Regina University1.51+2.14vs Predicted
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11University of Connecticut1.93-0.29vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College3.18-5.57vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.42-7.45vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island1.97-3.54vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.99-1.52vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College2.29-6.42vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.31Tufts University3.480.1%1st Place
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7.2Roger Williams University2.920.1%1st Place
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3.73Yale University4.100.2%1st Place
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8.04Boston University2.740.0%1st Place
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9.35Northeastern University2.340.0%1st Place
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7.67Brown University2.820.1%1st Place
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8.78Bowdoin College2.510.0%1st Place
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8.48Harvard University2.530.0%1st Place
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9.12U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.380.0%1st Place
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12.14Salve Regina University1.510.0%1st Place
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10.71University of Connecticut1.930.0%1st Place
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6.43Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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5.55Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.420.1%1st Place
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10.46University of Rhode Island1.970.0%1st Place
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13.48Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.990.0%1st Place
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9.58Connecticut College2.290.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natalie Salk | 13.1% | 12.1% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Haley Powell | 6.5% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Morgan Kiss | 22.5% | 17.9% | 12.8% | 14.3% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Glivinski | 4.4% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 2.8% | 1.3% |
| Elise Gehling | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 2.7% |
| Sky Adams | 5.1% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.0% |
| Lizzy Hamilton | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 2.3% |
| Caitlin Watson | 4.0% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 1.7% |
| Devon Rohde | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 4.3% |
| Genevieve Marquardt | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 10.1% | 12.7% | 17.3% | 21.0% |
| Sarah Fuller | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 12.6% | 13.2% | 8.6% |
| Kelsey Wheeler | 8.9% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Hanna Vincent | 11.4% | 10.3% | 12.4% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Kaitlyn Norton | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 9.0% |
| Priscilla Stoll | 1.2% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 16.0% | 42.8% |
| Alexandra Romagnoli | 2.3% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 4.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.