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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83+3.76vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University5.19+1.75vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania3.63+5.70vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College4.15+2.53vs Predicted
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5University of Virginia3.54+3.77vs Predicted
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6Colgate University2.53+6.49vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42+2.26vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy4.34-2.08vs Predicted
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9Ocean County College2.88+2.24vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University3.76-1.74vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.84+0.49vs Predicted
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12Fordham University3.53-2.82vs Predicted
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13Princeton University1.50+2.30vs Predicted
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14Washington College3.19-4.18vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49-9.45vs Predicted
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16Columbia University1.99-1.79vs Predicted
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17Cornell University2.89-5.66vs Predicted
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18Hampton University1.86-3.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.76St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.1%1st Place
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3.75Georgetown University5.190.2%1st Place
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8.7University of Pennsylvania3.630.0%1st Place
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6.53SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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8.77University of Virginia3.540.0%1st Place
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12.49Colgate University2.530.0%1st Place
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9.26U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.0%1st Place
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5.92U. S. Naval Academy4.340.1%1st Place
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11.24Ocean County College2.880.0%1st Place
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8.26Old Dominion University3.760.1%1st Place
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11.49George Washington University2.840.0%1st Place
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9.18Fordham University3.530.0%1st Place
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15.3Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
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9.82Washington College3.190.0%1st Place
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5.55Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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14.21Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
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11.34Cornell University2.890.0%1st Place
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14.42Hampton University1.860.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Menninger | 15.0% | 14.2% | 11.8% | 11.7% | 11.9% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlie Buckingham | 18.9% | 18.8% | 16.1% | 13.0% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Halsey Richartz | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Shawn Murray | 7.7% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Scott Layton | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 12.5% | 11.0% | 7.5% |
| Gary Herring | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Robert Vann | 9.5% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Kennedy | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 5.9% | 2.6% |
| Stephanie Roble | 6.4% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| William Ricketson | 3.1% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 6.8% | 3.7% |
| Carl Shorett | 4.4% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Gene Merewether | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 7.6% | 11.0% | 18.2% | 37.9% |
| Conner Blouin | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 1.5% |
| Samuel Blouin | 10.8% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 13.1% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Croll | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 12.2% | 12.0% | 18.7% | 18.9% |
| Vincent Andrews | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 3.1% |
| Shane Horsford | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 14.3% | 20.1% | 22.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.