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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.21+3.77vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.71+4.18vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.56+3.69vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.98+1.48vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.76+1.27vs Predicted
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6Harvard University2.58+0.72vs Predicted
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7Salve Regina University2.08+1.17vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.26-0.35vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College2.75-2.84vs Predicted
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10Brown University2.87-4.05vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.83-2.01vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.73-5.56vs Predicted
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13Boston University0.19-0.56vs Predicted
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14University of Connecticut-0.87-0.30vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.75-0.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.77Dartmouth College3.210.2%1st Place
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6.18Roger Williams University2.710.1%1st Place
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6.69Bowdoin College2.560.1%1st Place
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5.48Tufts University2.980.1%1st Place
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6.27Yale University2.760.1%1st Place
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6.72Harvard University2.580.1%1st Place
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8.17Salve Regina University2.080.1%1st Place
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7.65U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.260.1%1st Place
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6.16Connecticut College2.750.1%1st Place
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5.95Brown University2.870.1%1st Place
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8.99Northeastern University1.830.0%1st Place
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6.44Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.730.1%1st Place
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12.44Boston University0.190.0%1st Place
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13.7University of Connecticut-0.870.0%1st Place
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14.39Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Williams | 15.1% | 14.7% | 13.3% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Annie Schmidt | 7.7% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Courtney Koos | 7.9% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 6.3% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Mariel Marchand | 12.9% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marly Isler | 9.6% | 10.0% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Sophie Bermudez | 6.8% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Shannon Killian | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 13.3% | 13.9% | 5.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Christina Frost | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 12.5% | 3.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Liz Dubovik | 7.8% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Kelly McGlynn | 9.5% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Heidi Hood | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 13.1% | 19.1% | 11.1% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| Laura Dunphy | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 5.0% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Katelyn Richerts | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 7.7% | 44.6% | 24.8% | 5.8% |
| Marta Chlus | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 3.7% | 17.0% | 46.6% | 27.5% |
| Courtney Collins | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 6.9% | 22.7% | 66.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.