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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.57+3.60vs Predicted
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2Webb Institute1.73+4.06vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.13+3.88vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.16+1.88vs Predicted
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5Christopher Newport University0.73+5.46vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.54+2.54vs Predicted
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7Penn State University1.13+3.03vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University2.20-2.18vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland1.79-1.32vs Predicted
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10Hampton University0.72+2.67vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.79-3.97vs Predicted
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12Columbia University0.43+0.45vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.26-4.66vs Predicted
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14George Washington University0.93-3.63vs Predicted
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15Virginia Tech-0.20-0.92vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College-0.13-2.25vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.64-5.59vs Predicted
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18Washington College-0.55-3.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.6U. S. Naval Academy2.5715.6%1st Place
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6.06Webb Institute1.7310.6%1st Place
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6.88Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.138.2%1st Place
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5.88University of Pennsylvania2.1611.0%1st Place
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10.46Christopher Newport University0.732.9%1st Place
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8.54Fordham University1.545.2%1st Place
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10.03Penn State University1.133.4%1st Place
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5.82Georgetown University2.2011.8%1st Place
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7.68St. Mary's College of Maryland1.796.5%1st Place
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12.67Hampton University0.721.9%1st Place
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7.03Cornell University1.798.5%1st Place
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12.45Columbia University0.431.6%1st Place
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8.34Old Dominion University1.265.0%1st Place
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10.37George Washington University0.932.9%1st Place
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14.08Virginia Tech-0.200.9%1st Place
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13.75SUNY Maritime College-0.131.4%1st Place
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11.41U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.642.2%1st Place
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14.96Washington College-0.550.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Allgeier | 15.6% | 16.4% | 12.5% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rayne Duff | 10.6% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| JJ Klempen | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Jackson McAliley | 11.0% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Joshua Bendura | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 2.1% |
| Lucas Thress | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Barrett Lhamon | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 1.7% |
| Diego Escobar | 11.8% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Landon Cormie | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Stefano Palamara | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 13.7% | 11.6% | 7.6% |
| Sophia Devling | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Eva DeCastro | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 8.6% |
| Blake Goodwin | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Avery Canavan | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 2.1% |
| Daniel Hale | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 17.7% | 19.6% |
| Luke Barker | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 12.8% | 16.0% | 19.1% |
| Calvin Marsh | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 3.9% |
| Austin Latimer | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 11.5% | 17.6% | 34.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.