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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83+3.72vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College4.15+4.86vs Predicted
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3University of Virginia3.54+6.04vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42+5.19vs Predicted
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5Ocean County College2.88+6.13vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University5.19-2.38vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49-1.43vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.89+3.15vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University3.76-1.03vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania3.63-1.29vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy4.34-4.84vs Predicted
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12Washington College3.19-1.58vs Predicted
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13Princeton University1.50+2.25vs Predicted
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14Colgate University2.53-1.80vs Predicted
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15Columbia University1.99-0.82vs Predicted
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16Fordham University3.53-7.06vs Predicted
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17George Washington University2.84-5.48vs Predicted
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18Hampton University1.86-3.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.72St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.1%1st Place
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6.86SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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9.04University of Virginia3.540.0%1st Place
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9.19U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.0%1st Place
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11.13Ocean County College2.880.0%1st Place
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3.62Georgetown University5.190.2%1st Place
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5.57Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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11.15Cornell University2.890.0%1st Place
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7.97Old Dominion University3.760.0%1st Place
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8.71University of Pennsylvania3.630.1%1st Place
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6.16U. S. Naval Academy4.340.1%1st Place
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10.42Washington College3.190.0%1st Place
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15.25Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
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12.2Colgate University2.530.0%1st Place
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14.18Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
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8.94Fordham University3.530.0%1st Place
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11.52George Washington University2.840.0%1st Place
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14.36Hampton University1.860.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Menninger | 14.7% | 14.3% | 12.9% | 12.1% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shawn Murray | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Gary Herring | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| Tyler Kennedy | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 3.2% |
| Charlie Buckingham | 22.3% | 19.5% | 16.8% | 11.6% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Blouin | 11.4% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Vincent Andrews | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 2.9% |
| Stephanie Roble | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Halsey Richartz | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Robert Vann | 8.9% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Conner Blouin | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 1.1% |
| Gene Merewether | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 10.4% | 18.7% | 37.4% |
| Scott Layton | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 6.6% |
| John Croll | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 13.7% | 19.2% | 18.8% |
| Carl Shorett | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| William Ricketson | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 4.1% |
| Shane Horsford | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 15.7% | 16.8% | 22.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.