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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College4.15+5.81vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42+7.52vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University3.76+5.13vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83+0.51vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania3.63+3.41vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy4.34+0.02vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University5.19-3.31vs Predicted
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8University of Virginia3.54+0.69vs Predicted
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9Fordham University3.53-0.17vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49-4.30vs Predicted
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11Ocean County College2.88+0.31vs Predicted
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12Washington College3.19-1.54vs Predicted
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13Columbia University1.99+1.05vs Predicted
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14Princeton University1.50+1.22vs Predicted
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15Cornell University2.89-3.84vs Predicted
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16George Washington University2.84-4.55vs Predicted
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17Colgate University2.53-4.34vs Predicted
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18Hampton University1.86-3.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.81SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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9.52U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.0%1st Place
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8.13Old Dominion University3.760.0%1st Place
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4.51St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.2%1st Place
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8.41University of Pennsylvania3.630.0%1st Place
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6.02U. S. Naval Academy4.340.1%1st Place
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3.69Georgetown University5.190.2%1st Place
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8.69University of Virginia3.540.0%1st Place
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8.83Fordham University3.530.0%1st Place
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5.7Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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11.31Ocean County College2.880.0%1st Place
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10.46Washington College3.190.0%1st Place
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14.05Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
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15.22Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
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11.16Cornell University2.890.0%1st Place
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11.45George Washington University2.840.0%1st Place
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12.66Colgate University2.530.0%1st Place
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14.38Hampton University1.860.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Murray | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gary Herring | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Stephanie Roble | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Michael Menninger | 15.7% | 16.2% | 15.1% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Halsey Richartz | 4.7% | 4.9% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Robert Vann | 9.4% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Charlie Buckingham | 21.9% | 21.2% | 12.8% | 12.6% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 3.9% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Carl Shorett | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Samuel Blouin | 11.7% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Kennedy | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 3.1% |
| Conner Blouin | 2.9% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 3.4% | 1.8% |
| John Croll | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 13.6% | 19.4% | 19.2% |
| Gene Merewether | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 17.3% | 37.3% |
| Vincent Andrews | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 3.1% |
| William Ricketson | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 6.4% | 4.3% |
| Scott Layton | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 11.4% | 11.7% | 14.1% | 7.5% |
| Shane Horsford | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 13.9% | 18.8% | 21.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.