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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Virginia3.54+8.00vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University5.19+1.77vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83+1.67vs Predicted
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4Fordham University3.53+4.80vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College4.15+1.61vs Predicted
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6Ocean County College2.88+5.31vs Predicted
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7Colgate University2.53+5.46vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49-2.46vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy4.34-3.08vs Predicted
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10Cornell University2.89+1.46vs Predicted
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11Washington College3.19-0.76vs Predicted
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12Hampton University1.86+2.79vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University3.76-5.09vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania3.63-5.73vs Predicted
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15Princeton University1.50+0.38vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42-6.62vs Predicted
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17George Washington University2.84-5.51vs Predicted
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18Columbia University1.99-4.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.0University of Virginia3.540.0%1st Place
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3.77Georgetown University5.190.2%1st Place
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4.67St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.1%1st Place
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8.8Fordham University3.530.0%1st Place
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6.61SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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11.31Ocean County College2.880.0%1st Place
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12.46Colgate University2.530.0%1st Place
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5.54Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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5.92U. S. Naval Academy4.340.1%1st Place
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11.46Cornell University2.890.0%1st Place
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10.24Washington College3.190.0%1st Place
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14.79Hampton University1.860.0%1st Place
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7.91Old Dominion University3.760.1%1st Place
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8.27University of Pennsylvania3.630.1%1st Place
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15.38Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
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9.38U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.0%1st Place
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11.49George Washington University2.840.0%1st Place
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13.98Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gordon Wolcott | 4.7% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Charlie Buckingham | 19.0% | 18.7% | 16.6% | 12.2% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Menninger | 14.6% | 13.9% | 13.8% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carl Shorett | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Shawn Murray | 8.1% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Kennedy | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 3.4% |
| Scott Layton | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 12.9% | 11.1% | 6.4% |
| Samuel Blouin | 11.4% | 12.4% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Vann | 8.9% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Andrews | 2.4% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 3.3% |
| Conner Blouin | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 1.2% |
| Shane Horsford | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 13.0% | 18.6% | 27.5% |
| Stephanie Roble | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Halsey Richartz | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Gene Merewether | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 11.6% | 20.3% | 35.4% |
| Gary Herring | 3.7% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| William Ricketson | 2.7% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 3.9% |
| John Croll | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 15.9% | 16.8% | 16.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.