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📊 Prediction Accuracy
5.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.65+5.21vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.42+5.27vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College2.51+3.59vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.38+2.70vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.82+4.09vs Predicted
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6Princeton University1.87+5.36vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.81+2.73vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.53+2.41vs Predicted
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9Washington College1.66+2.22vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.25-2.24vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.89-0.13vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.73-4.56vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University2.41-5.73vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-6.06vs Predicted
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15Drexel University1.12-3.62vs Predicted
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16Hampton University1.47-3.75vs Predicted
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17Christopher Newport University1.21-4.61vs Predicted
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18University of Virginia-0.03-2.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.21St. Mary's College of Maryland2.659.4%1st Place
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7.27University of Pennsylvania2.427.8%1st Place
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6.59SUNY Maritime College2.518.8%1st Place
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6.7Cornell University2.388.8%1st Place
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9.09George Washington University1.825.5%1st Place
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11.36Princeton University1.873.2%1st Place
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9.73Old Dominion University1.815.2%1st Place
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10.41Fordham University1.534.0%1st Place
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11.22Washington College1.663.0%1st Place
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7.76U. S. Naval Academy2.257.2%1st Place
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10.87Fordham University1.893.1%1st Place
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7.44Webb Institute1.739.4%1st Place
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7.27Georgetown University2.418.2%1st Place
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7.94Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.167.3%1st Place
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11.38Drexel University1.122.8%1st Place
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12.25Hampton University1.472.8%1st Place
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12.39Christopher Newport University1.212.4%1st Place
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15.14University of Virginia-0.031.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Boucher | 9.4% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Jordan Bruce | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Benton Amthor | 8.8% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Hayden Earl | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Wood | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 1.2% |
| Connor Mraz | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 7.2% |
| Noyl Odom | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 2.5% |
| Michael Burns | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 3.6% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 5.6% |
| Gavin McJones | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 10.7% | 7.2% | 4.7% |
| Rayne Duff | 9.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Scott Mais | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Will Murray | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Toby Sullivan | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 6.9% |
| Valerio Palamara | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 13.2% | 10.1% |
| Brian Fox | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 13.2% | 10.8% |
| Anna Groszkowski | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 13.7% | 44.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.