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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.65+5.18vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.38+4.61vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.42+4.28vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College2.51+2.53vs Predicted
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5Princeton University1.87+6.38vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.82+3.03vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.73+0.53vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University2.41-0.87vs Predicted
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9Drexel University1.12+2.57vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University1.21+2.29vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy2.25-3.34vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-3.96vs Predicted
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13Fordham University1.89-2.08vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University1.81-4.18vs Predicted
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15Fordham University1.53-4.41vs Predicted
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16Washington College1.66-4.71vs Predicted
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17Hampton University1.47-5.06vs Predicted
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18University of Virginia-0.03-2.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.18St. Mary's College of Maryland2.6511.4%1st Place
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6.61Cornell University2.3810.6%1st Place
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7.28University of Pennsylvania2.427.8%1st Place
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6.53SUNY Maritime College2.519.8%1st Place
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11.38Princeton University1.873.1%1st Place
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9.03George Washington University1.825.1%1st Place
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7.53Webb Institute1.737.2%1st Place
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7.13Georgetown University2.418.0%1st Place
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11.57Drexel University1.122.8%1st Place
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12.29Christopher Newport University1.212.0%1st Place
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7.66U. S. Naval Academy2.257.8%1st Place
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8.04Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.166.2%1st Place
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10.92Fordham University1.893.4%1st Place
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9.82Old Dominion University1.814.8%1st Place
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10.59Fordham University1.534.3%1st Place
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11.29Washington College1.662.5%1st Place
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11.94Hampton University1.472.4%1st Place
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15.21University of Virginia-0.030.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Boucher | 11.4% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Hayden Earl | 10.6% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Jordan Bruce | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Benton Amthor | 9.8% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Connor Mraz | 3.1% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 6.2% |
| Tyler Wood | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| Rayne Duff | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Scott Mais | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Toby Sullivan | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 6.9% |
| Brian Fox | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 12.6% | 13.7% | 10.2% |
| Gavin McJones | 7.8% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Will Murray | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 4.8% |
| Noyl Odom | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 2.4% |
| Michael Burns | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 4.2% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 2.5% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 5.0% |
| Valerio Palamara | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 9.5% |
| Anna Groszkowski | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 11.9% | 47.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.