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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.75+5.19vs Predicted
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2George Washington University1.82+6.68vs Predicted
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3Palm Beach Atlantic University1.26+7.94vs Predicted
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4Washington College1.66+6.99vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College2.51+1.68vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.65+0.02vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.25+0.55vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-0.19vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.38-2.60vs Predicted
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10Hampton University1.47+1.76vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.42-3.76vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University1.21+0.14vs Predicted
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13Webb Institute1.30-2.50vs Predicted
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14Princeton University1.87-2.74vs Predicted
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15Drexel University1.12-3.64vs Predicted
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16University of Virginia-0.03-0.85vs Predicted
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17Fordham University1.89-6.29vs Predicted
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18Old Dominion University1.81-8.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.19Georgetown University2.7510.5%1st Place
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8.68George Washington University1.825.8%1st Place
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10.94Palm Beach Atlantic University1.262.8%1st Place
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10.99Washington College1.662.8%1st Place
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6.68SUNY Maritime College2.519.0%1st Place
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6.02St. Mary's College of Maryland2.6510.8%1st Place
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7.55U. S. Naval Academy2.257.8%1st Place
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7.81Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.167.5%1st Place
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6.4Cornell University2.3810.4%1st Place
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11.76Hampton University1.472.9%1st Place
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7.24University of Pennsylvania2.427.5%1st Place
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12.14Christopher Newport University1.212.5%1st Place
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10.5Webb Institute1.303.9%1st Place
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11.26Princeton University1.873.4%1st Place
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11.36Drexel University1.122.6%1st Place
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15.15University of Virginia-0.031.1%1st Place
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10.71Fordham University1.894.5%1st Place
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9.62Old Dominion University1.814.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariner Fagan | 10.5% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Wood | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| Thomas Green | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 5.3% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 5.4% |
| Benton Amthor | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Leo Boucher | 10.8% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Gavin McJones | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Will Murray | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Hayden Earl | 10.4% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Valerio Palamara | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 9.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Brian Fox | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 13.1% | 11.0% |
| Everett Botwinick | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 4.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 5.9% |
| Toby Sullivan | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 5.2% |
| Anna Groszkowski | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 9.2% | 13.6% | 44.5% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 4.5% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 4.8% |
| Noyl Odom | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 2.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.