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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College1.88+7.00vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+5.52vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.09+3.75vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.59+4.14vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.62+3.37vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41+2.62vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.60-1.85vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.86-0.36vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-3.77vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania1.90-2.89vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute1.43-2.57vs Predicted
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12Cornell University0.97-1.32vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University0.48-0.42vs Predicted
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14Hampton University0.72-2.97vs Predicted
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15Washington College0.19-1.37vs Predicted
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16University of Virginia0.02-1.67vs Predicted
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17Drexel University-1.13-0.46vs Predicted
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18Princeton University0.84-6.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.0SUNY Maritime College1.886.8%1st Place
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7.52Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.776.0%1st Place
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6.75Georgetown University2.098.5%1st Place
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8.14Old Dominion University1.595.6%1st Place
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8.37Fordham University1.625.2%1st Place
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8.62U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.415.6%1st Place
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5.15U. S. Naval Academy2.6014.6%1st Place
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7.64George Washington University1.867.0%1st Place
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5.23St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5714.5%1st Place
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7.11University of Pennsylvania1.907.5%1st Place
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8.43Webb Institute1.435.5%1st Place
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10.68Cornell University0.973.6%1st Place
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12.58Christopher Newport University0.481.9%1st Place
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11.03Hampton University0.722.7%1st Place
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13.63Washington College0.191.1%1st Place
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14.33University of Virginia0.020.9%1st Place
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16.54Drexel University-1.130.4%1st Place
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11.25Princeton University0.842.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Barnes | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Edward Cook | 8.5% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Diogo Silva | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Dolan | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| William Weinbecker | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Nathan Smith | 14.6% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Timms | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 14.5% | 12.1% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Javier Garcon | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Payne Donaldson | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Lucija Ruzevic | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 5.2% | 1.8% |
| David Grace | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 8.6% | 12.0% | 14.6% | 14.2% | 5.9% |
| Stefano Palamara | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 5.8% | 2.1% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 11.4% | 16.0% | 20.7% | 9.5% |
| Connor Lothrop | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 15.8% | 24.9% | 15.7% |
| Yanni Tsetsekos | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 14.6% | 61.0% |
| Asher Green | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 7.0% | 2.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.