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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.60+4.03vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.09+4.65vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+2.29vs Predicted
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4George Washington University1.86+3.36vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania1.90+2.20vs Predicted
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6Cornell University0.97+4.84vs Predicted
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7Hampton University0.72+4.08vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University1.59+0.20vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College1.88-1.28vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute1.43-1.36vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41-2.37vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University0.48+0.67vs Predicted
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13Princeton University0.84-1.89vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-6.22vs Predicted
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15Fordham University1.62-6.58vs Predicted
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16Washington College0.19-2.39vs Predicted
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17University of Virginia0.02-2.68vs Predicted
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18Drexel University-1.13-1.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.03U. S. Naval Academy2.6014.8%1st Place
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6.65Georgetown University2.099.3%1st Place
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5.29St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5713.8%1st Place
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7.36George Washington University1.867.8%1st Place
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7.2University of Pennsylvania1.907.8%1st Place
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10.84Cornell University0.972.5%1st Place
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11.08Hampton University0.722.4%1st Place
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8.2Old Dominion University1.595.8%1st Place
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7.72SUNY Maritime College1.885.5%1st Place
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8.64Webb Institute1.435.2%1st Place
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8.63U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.415.1%1st Place
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12.67Christopher Newport University0.481.6%1st Place
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11.11Princeton University0.843.1%1st Place
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7.78Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.776.7%1st Place
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8.42Fordham University1.626.0%1st Place
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13.61Washington College0.191.2%1st Place
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14.32University of Virginia0.020.8%1st Place
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16.42Drexel University-1.130.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith | 14.8% | 13.1% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Edward Cook | 9.3% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 13.8% | 12.8% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Owen Timms | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Javier Garcon | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Lucija Ruzevic | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 5.3% | 1.2% |
| Stefano Palamara | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 6.3% | 1.6% |
| Diogo Silva | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Spencer Barnes | 5.5% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| William Weinbecker | 5.1% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| David Grace | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 11.1% | 14.6% | 14.4% | 6.7% |
| Asher Green | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 2.4% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Dolan | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 14.5% | 20.0% | 10.7% |
| Connor Lothrop | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 14.8% | 24.4% | 16.9% |
| Yanni Tsetsekos | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 14.8% | 59.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.