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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.90+6.15vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.60+3.10vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute1.71+5.21vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+1.39vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.09+1.47vs Predicted
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6Princeton University0.84+5.07vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.42+1.75vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41+0.63vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.86-1.35vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University1.59-1.88vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College1.88-2.94vs Predicted
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12Cornell University0.97-1.02vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University0.48-0.32vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-6.42vs Predicted
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15Washington College0.20-1.39vs Predicted
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16Hampton University0.72-5.07vs Predicted
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17Drexel University-1.13-0.59vs Predicted
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18University of Virginia0.02-3.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.15University of Pennsylvania1.908.2%1st Place
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5.1U. S. Naval Academy2.6014.7%1st Place
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8.21Webb Institute1.715.5%1st Place
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5.39St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5712.3%1st Place
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6.47Georgetown University2.099.8%1st Place
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11.07Princeton University0.843.1%1st Place
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8.75Fordham University1.425.3%1st Place
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8.63U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.415.8%1st Place
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7.65George Washington University1.865.9%1st Place
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8.12Old Dominion University1.596.4%1st Place
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8.06SUNY Maritime College1.885.8%1st Place
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10.98Cornell University0.972.5%1st Place
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12.68Christopher Newport University0.481.3%1st Place
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7.58Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.777.6%1st Place
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13.61Washington College0.201.1%1st Place
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10.93Hampton University0.723.4%1st Place
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16.41Drexel University-1.130.3%1st Place
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14.21University of Virginia0.021.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Garcon | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 14.7% | 12.3% | 12.8% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Calvin Schmid | 5.5% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 12.3% | 13.2% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Edward Cook | 9.8% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Asher Green | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 6.8% | 2.6% |
| Beckett Kumler | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| William Weinbecker | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Owen Timms | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Diogo Silva | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Spencer Barnes | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Lucija Ruzevic | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 5.7% | 1.8% |
| David Grace | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 11.7% | 14.5% | 14.0% | 5.8% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 7.6% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Kennedy Jones | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 16.6% | 19.4% | 11.3% |
| Stefano Palamara | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 2.2% |
| Yanni Tsetsekos | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 7.8% | 15.7% | 58.1% |
| Connor Lothrop | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 10.1% | 12.8% | 24.6% | 16.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.