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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy4.34+5.17vs Predicted
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2Fordham University3.53+7.15vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83+1.65vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49+1.49vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College4.15+1.64vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University3.76+2.01vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University5.19-3.33vs Predicted
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8Ocean County College2.88+3.16vs Predicted
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9George Washington University2.84+2.43vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42-0.54vs Predicted
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11Washington College3.19-0.80vs Predicted
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12Colgate University2.53+0.81vs Predicted
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13Cornell University2.89-1.93vs Predicted
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14Princeton University1.50+1.18vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania3.63-6.54vs Predicted
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16Hampton University1.86-1.41vs Predicted
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17Columbia University1.99-2.75vs Predicted
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18University of Virginia3.54-9.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.17U. S. Naval Academy4.340.1%1st Place
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9.15Fordham University3.530.0%1st Place
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4.65St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.1%1st Place
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5.49Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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6.64SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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8.01Old Dominion University3.760.1%1st Place
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3.67Georgetown University5.190.2%1st Place
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11.16Ocean County College2.880.0%1st Place
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11.43George Washington University2.840.0%1st Place
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9.46U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.0%1st Place
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10.2Washington College3.190.0%1st Place
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12.81Colgate University2.530.0%1st Place
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11.07Cornell University2.890.0%1st Place
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15.18Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
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8.46University of Pennsylvania3.630.0%1st Place
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14.59Hampton University1.860.0%1st Place
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14.25Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
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8.62University of Virginia3.540.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Vann | 9.1% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carl Shorett | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Michael Menninger | 13.5% | 13.5% | 15.3% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Blouin | 12.0% | 10.8% | 12.7% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Shawn Murray | 7.2% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Stephanie Roble | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Charlie Buckingham | 21.9% | 20.6% | 13.0% | 13.4% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Kennedy | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 5.7% | 2.8% |
| William Ricketson | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 6.6% | 2.6% |
| Gary Herring | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Conner Blouin | 3.9% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 1.3% |
| Scott Layton | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 11.9% | 13.2% | 13.1% | 8.2% |
| Vincent Andrews | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 6.1% | 2.9% |
| Gene Merewether | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 17.1% | 35.9% |
| Halsey Richartz | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Shane Horsford | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 12.4% | 20.4% | 24.0% |
| John Croll | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 14.5% | 19.2% | 20.2% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.