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📊 Prediction Accuracy
85.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.3
Avg Position Diff
7
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College0.36+1.60vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College0.18+0.74vs Predicted
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3Middlebury College-1.42+1.96vs Predicted
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4Middlebury College-0.37-0.35vs Predicted
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5University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.42+0.38vs Predicted
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6Middlebury College-0.79-1.74vs Predicted
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7Amherst College-0.89-2.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.6Dartmouth College0.3629.0%1st Place
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2.74Dartmouth College0.1828.2%1st Place
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4.96Middlebury College-1.426.2%1st Place
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3.65Middlebury College-0.3713.8%1st Place
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5.38University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.424.2%1st Place
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4.26Middlebury College-0.799.9%1st Place
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4.41Amherst College-0.898.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Vogel | 29.0% | 24.9% | 20.4% | 13.3% | 7.9% | 3.6% | 0.8% |
| Michael Hanrahan | 28.2% | 22.2% | 18.7% | 15.8% | 9.6% | 4.1% | 1.5% |
| William Procter | 6.2% | 7.6% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 14.8% | 23.8% | 26.1% |
| Penelope Weekes | 13.8% | 17.3% | 17.2% | 17.2% | 17.4% | 10.8% | 6.2% |
| Andy Giaya | 4.2% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 11.3% | 14.1% | 19.5% | 38.4% |
| Grace Augspurger | 9.9% | 11.8% | 13.2% | 16.4% | 17.2% | 19.1% | 12.5% |
| James Knowlton | 8.6% | 10.7% | 12.6% | 15.4% | 18.9% | 19.1% | 14.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.