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📊 Prediction Accuracy
85.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.3
Avg Position Diff
7
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College0.36+1.64vs Predicted
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2Middlebury College-0.37+1.68vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College0.18-0.24vs Predicted
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4Middlebury College-1.42+1.07vs Predicted
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5Middlebury College-0.79-0.85vs Predicted
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6University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.42-0.72vs Predicted
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7Amherst College-0.89-2.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.64Dartmouth College0.3628.4%1st Place
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3.68Middlebury College-0.3714.3%1st Place
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2.76Dartmouth College0.1826.5%1st Place
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5.07Middlebury College-1.425.8%1st Place
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4.15Middlebury College-0.7910.6%1st Place
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5.28University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.425.1%1st Place
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4.42Amherst College-0.899.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Vogel | 28.4% | 24.1% | 21.1% | 13.4% | 8.7% | 3.5% | 0.8% |
| Penelope Weekes | 14.3% | 15.7% | 17.0% | 17.9% | 17.2% | 11.4% | 6.5% |
| Michael Hanrahan | 26.5% | 24.2% | 18.9% | 15.2% | 9.2% | 4.5% | 1.5% |
| William Procter | 5.8% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 12.4% | 13.9% | 22.7% | 29.4% |
| Grace Augspurger | 10.6% | 12.0% | 15.7% | 16.3% | 16.9% | 15.8% | 12.6% |
| Andy Giaya | 5.1% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 15.4% | 20.5% | 35.6% |
| James Knowlton | 9.3% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 15.4% | 18.6% | 21.4% | 13.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.