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📊 Prediction Accuracy
85.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.2
Avg Position Diff
7
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Amherst College-0.89+3.36vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College0.36+0.58vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College0.18-0.24vs Predicted
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4Middlebury College-0.37-0.36vs Predicted
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5University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.42+0.30vs Predicted
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6Middlebury College-0.79-1.73vs Predicted
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7Middlebury College-1.42-1.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.36Amherst College-0.8910.4%1st Place
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2.58Dartmouth College0.3629.0%1st Place
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2.76Dartmouth College0.1824.8%1st Place
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3.64Middlebury College-0.3715.6%1st Place
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5.3University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.424.8%1st Place
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4.27Middlebury College-0.799.8%1st Place
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5.09Middlebury College-1.425.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Knowlton | 10.4% | 9.8% | 13.7% | 15.1% | 16.5% | 19.2% | 15.3% |
| Connor Vogel | 29.0% | 26.1% | 19.2% | 13.9% | 7.7% | 3.5% | 0.6% |
| Michael Hanrahan | 24.8% | 25.9% | 19.4% | 15.4% | 9.3% | 4.1% | 1.1% |
| Penelope Weekes | 15.6% | 15.1% | 17.1% | 18.1% | 16.1% | 12.3% | 5.7% |
| Andy Giaya | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 14.6% | 20.6% | 36.1% |
| Grace Augspurger | 9.8% | 11.0% | 13.8% | 15.8% | 19.4% | 17.6% | 12.6% |
| William Procter | 5.7% | 5.9% | 9.0% | 11.8% | 16.4% | 22.7% | 28.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.