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📊 Prediction Accuracy
85.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
7
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Middlebury College-0.37+2.68vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College0.18+0.74vs Predicted
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3Amherst College-0.89+1.42vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College0.36-1.45vs Predicted
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5Middlebury College-0.79-0.71vs Predicted
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6Middlebury College-1.42-0.99vs Predicted
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7University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.42-1.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.68Middlebury College-0.3714.4%1st Place
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2.74Dartmouth College0.1826.1%1st Place
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4.42Amherst College-0.898.6%1st Place
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2.55Dartmouth College0.3630.6%1st Place
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4.29Middlebury College-0.798.8%1st Place
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5.01Middlebury College-1.426.2%1st Place
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5.3University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.425.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penelope Weekes | 14.4% | 15.4% | 17.3% | 18.5% | 15.3% | 12.2% | 6.7% |
| Michael Hanrahan | 26.1% | 23.8% | 21.6% | 13.8% | 9.4% | 3.6% | 1.6% |
| James Knowlton | 8.6% | 9.6% | 13.8% | 15.6% | 18.5% | 19.1% | 14.8% |
| Connor Vogel | 30.6% | 26.2% | 17.3% | 14.5% | 7.0% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| Grace Augspurger | 8.8% | 11.5% | 13.4% | 16.1% | 20.4% | 18.1% | 11.8% |
| William Procter | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 11.8% | 15.0% | 22.5% | 28.0% |
| Andy Giaya | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 14.3% | 21.2% | 36.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.