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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83+3.74vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College4.15+4.84vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy4.34+3.13vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.89+7.09vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University3.76+2.98vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University5.19-2.38vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania3.63+1.51vs Predicted
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8Washington College3.19+2.01vs Predicted
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9Fordham University3.53-0.14vs Predicted
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10Ocean County College2.88+1.47vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42-1.57vs Predicted
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12George Washington University2.84-0.24vs Predicted
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13Hampton University1.86+1.34vs Predicted
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14Colgate University2.53-1.82vs Predicted
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15Columbia University1.99-0.87vs Predicted
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16Princeton University1.50-0.53vs Predicted
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17University of Virginia3.54-8.00vs Predicted
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18Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49-12.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.74St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.1%1st Place
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6.84SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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6.13U. S. Naval Academy4.340.1%1st Place
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11.09Cornell University2.890.0%1st Place
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7.98Old Dominion University3.760.1%1st Place
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3.62Georgetown University5.190.2%1st Place
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8.51University of Pennsylvania3.630.1%1st Place
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10.01Washington College3.190.0%1st Place
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8.86Fordham University3.530.0%1st Place
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11.47Ocean County College2.880.0%1st Place
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9.43U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.0%1st Place
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11.76George Washington University2.840.0%1st Place
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14.34Hampton University1.860.0%1st Place
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12.18Colgate University2.530.0%1st Place
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14.13Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
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15.47Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
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9.0University of Virginia3.540.0%1st Place
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5.41Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Menninger | 13.9% | 15.0% | 13.4% | 11.9% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shawn Murray | 5.7% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Robert Vann | 8.4% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Andrews | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 4.0% |
| Stephanie Roble | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Charlie Buckingham | 21.9% | 19.8% | 15.7% | 11.6% | 10.6% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Halsey Richartz | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Conner Blouin | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 0.9% |
| Carl Shorett | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Tyler Kennedy | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 7.3% | 2.9% |
| Gary Herring | 4.5% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| William Ricketson | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 11.5% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 4.3% |
| Shane Horsford | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 14.5% | 17.2% | 23.4% |
| Scott Layton | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 12.5% | 9.5% | 7.0% |
| John Croll | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 12.4% | 21.3% | 17.4% |
| Gene Merewether | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 18.3% | 38.5% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Samuel Blouin | 12.1% | 11.3% | 12.1% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.