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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University3.53+8.07vs Predicted
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2University of Virginia3.54+7.09vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University3.76+5.24vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy4.34+1.97vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83-0.47vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University5.19-2.31vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College4.15-0.34vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania3.63+0.44vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49-3.53vs Predicted
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10Washington College3.19+0.33vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.84+0.47vs Predicted
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12Cornell University2.89-0.43vs Predicted
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13Colgate University2.53-0.68vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.48-5.13vs Predicted
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15Princeton University1.50+0.42vs Predicted
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16Ocean County College2.88-4.71vs Predicted
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17Hampton University1.86-2.43vs Predicted
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18Columbia University1.99-3.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.07Fordham University3.530.0%1st Place
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9.09University of Virginia3.540.0%1st Place
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8.24Old Dominion University3.760.0%1st Place
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5.97U. S. Naval Academy4.340.1%1st Place
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4.53St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.2%1st Place
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3.69Georgetown University5.190.2%1st Place
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6.66SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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8.44University of Pennsylvania3.630.0%1st Place
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5.47Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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10.33Washington College3.190.0%1st Place
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11.47George Washington University2.840.0%1st Place
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11.57Cornell University2.890.0%1st Place
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12.32Colgate University2.530.0%1st Place
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8.87U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.480.0%1st Place
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15.42Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
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11.29Ocean County College2.880.0%1st Place
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14.57Hampton University1.860.0%1st Place
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14.01Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carl Shorett | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 2.6% | 3.1% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Stephanie Roble | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Robert Vann | 9.7% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Menninger | 17.2% | 15.3% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlie Buckingham | 21.5% | 18.0% | 17.2% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shawn Murray | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Halsey Richartz | 4.4% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Samuel Blouin | 9.9% | 11.9% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conner Blouin | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 1.2% |
| William Ricketson | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 4.3% |
| Vincent Andrews | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 7.5% | 3.1% |
| Scott Layton | 2.3% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 11.2% | 7.3% |
| Ian Holtzworth | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Gene Merewether | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 19.8% | 37.4% |
| Tyler Kennedy | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 3.0% |
| Shane Horsford | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 13.7% | 18.0% | 25.5% |
| John Croll | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 15.9% | 16.9% | 16.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.