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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Washington College3.19+9.29vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83+2.67vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy4.34+3.17vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49+1.53vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University5.19-1.38vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College4.15+0.63vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania3.63+1.53vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.89+3.19vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.48+0.02vs Predicted
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10Fordham University3.53-0.84vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia3.54-2.03vs Predicted
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12Colgate University2.53+0.83vs Predicted
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13George Washington University2.84-1.74vs Predicted
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14Princeton University1.50+1.20vs Predicted
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15Ocean County College2.88-3.77vs Predicted
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16Hampton University1.86-1.42vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University3.76-8.87vs Predicted
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18Columbia University1.99-4.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.29Washington College3.190.0%1st Place
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4.67St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.1%1st Place
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6.17U. S. Naval Academy4.340.1%1st Place
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5.53Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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3.62Georgetown University5.190.2%1st Place
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6.63SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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8.53University of Pennsylvania3.630.1%1st Place
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11.19Cornell University2.890.0%1st Place
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9.02U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.480.0%1st Place
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9.16Fordham University3.530.0%1st Place
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8.97University of Virginia3.540.0%1st Place
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12.83Colgate University2.530.0%1st Place
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11.26George Washington University2.840.0%1st Place
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15.2Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
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11.23Ocean County College2.880.0%1st Place
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14.58Hampton University1.860.0%1st Place
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8.13Old Dominion University3.760.1%1st Place
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13.99Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conner Blouin | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 1.8% |
| Michael Menninger | 11.3% | 15.0% | 15.4% | 13.5% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Vann | 8.2% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Blouin | 11.3% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlie Buckingham | 23.6% | 19.7% | 14.1% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shawn Murray | 8.0% | 6.5% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Halsey Richartz | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Vincent Andrews | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 2.5% |
| Ian Holtzworth | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Carl Shorett | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Scott Layton | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 13.5% | 12.7% | 9.6% |
| William Ricketson | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 6.6% | 3.5% |
| Gene Merewether | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 10.3% | 18.3% | 35.7% |
| Tyler Kennedy | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 3.4% |
| Shane Horsford | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 13.5% | 18.5% | 24.5% |
| Stephanie Roble | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| John Croll | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 14.8% | 17.5% | 17.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.