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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Washington College3.19+9.21vs Predicted
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2Colgate University2.53+10.73vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University5.19+0.73vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49+1.47vs Predicted
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5Fordham University3.53+3.82vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University3.76+2.05vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.89+4.19vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83-3.46vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College4.15-2.39vs Predicted
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10Ocean County College2.88+1.49vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy4.34-4.83vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania3.63-3.17vs Predicted
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13Hampton University1.86+1.33vs Predicted
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14University of Virginia3.54-5.39vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42-5.77vs Predicted
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16Princeton University1.50-0.61vs Predicted
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17George Washington University2.84-5.43vs Predicted
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18Columbia University1.99-3.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.21Washington College3.190.0%1st Place
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12.73Colgate University2.530.0%1st Place
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3.73Georgetown University5.190.2%1st Place
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5.47Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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8.82Fordham University3.530.0%1st Place
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8.05Old Dominion University3.760.0%1st Place
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11.19Cornell University2.890.0%1st Place
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4.54St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.2%1st Place
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6.61SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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11.49Ocean County College2.880.0%1st Place
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6.17U. S. Naval Academy4.340.1%1st Place
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8.83University of Pennsylvania3.630.0%1st Place
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14.33Hampton University1.860.0%1st Place
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8.61University of Virginia3.540.0%1st Place
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9.23U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.0%1st Place
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15.39Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
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11.57George Washington University2.840.0%1st Place
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14.01Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conner Blouin | 3.5% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 2.1% |
| Scott Layton | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 10.5% | 12.2% | 12.8% | 11.4% | 7.0% |
| Charlie Buckingham | 20.9% | 17.4% | 15.9% | 13.4% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Blouin | 11.6% | 12.5% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Carl Shorett | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Stephanie Roble | 4.9% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Andrews | 2.6% | 1.6% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 3.6% |
| Michael Menninger | 15.8% | 15.8% | 11.7% | 12.9% | 11.0% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shawn Murray | 6.9% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Kennedy | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 3.2% |
| Robert Vann | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Halsey Richartz | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Shane Horsford | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 13.0% | 18.3% | 23.2% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 5.2% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Gary Herring | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
| Gene Merewether | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 11.9% | 18.6% | 38.0% |
| William Ricketson | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 3.9% |
| John Croll | 1.1% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 12.8% | 18.9% | 16.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.