← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Harvard University3.18+3.72vs Predicted
-
2Tufts University2.22+5.72vs Predicted
-
3Roger Williams University2.68+3.71vs Predicted
-
4University of Rhode Island2.78+3.89vs Predicted
-
5Connecticut College1.20+6.53vs Predicted
-
6Brown University2.73+0.19vs Predicted
-
7Bowdoin College2.38+1.37vs Predicted
-
8Boston College2.58-0.47vs Predicted
-
9Yale University2.73-3.64vs Predicted
-
10University of Vermont1.06+1.66vs Predicted
-
11Dartmouth College2.34-3.57vs Predicted
-
12Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-3.21vs Predicted
-
13Northeastern University1.59-0.79vs Predicted
-
14Salve Regina University0.97+0.54vs Predicted
-
15Boston University0.97-3.93vs Predicted
-
16Fairfield University0.42-2.49vs Predicted
-
17U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-9.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.72Harvard University3.1815.1%1st Place
-
7.72Tufts University2.225.7%1st Place
-
6.71Roger Williams University2.688.8%1st Place
-
7.89University of Rhode Island2.786.1%1st Place
-
11.53Connecticut College1.202.7%1st Place
-
6.19Brown University2.739.5%1st Place
-
8.37Bowdoin College2.385.6%1st Place
-
7.53Boston College2.587.1%1st Place
-
5.36Yale University2.7311.8%1st Place
-
11.66University of Vermont1.062.7%1st Place
-
7.43Dartmouth College2.346.9%1st Place
-
8.79Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.314.3%1st Place
-
12.21Northeastern University1.591.6%1st Place
-
14.54Salve Regina University0.970.5%1st Place
-
11.07Boston University0.973.0%1st Place
-
13.51Fairfield University0.421.2%1st Place
-
7.78U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.327.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Callahan | 15.1% | 14.2% | 13.4% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Mueller | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Carlos de Castro | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Skylor Sweet | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 12.3% | 8.0% |
| Guthrie Braun | 9.5% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Hall | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Peter Busch | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Jack Egan | 11.8% | 13.1% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Ethan Burt | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 13.4% | 12.8% | 7.6% |
| Chase Decker | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 0.7% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 13.4% | 15.3% | 11.2% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 9.8% | 17.0% | 42.6% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 3.0% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 5.3% |
| Nolan Cooper | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 14.1% | 20.8% | 22.1% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.