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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83+3.71vs Predicted
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2Washington College3.19+8.37vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy4.34+3.13vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49+1.45vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University5.19-1.37vs Predicted
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6Fordham University3.53+2.86vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University3.76+0.96vs Predicted
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8University of Virginia3.54+0.76vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42+0.22vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College4.15-3.17vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania3.63-2.39vs Predicted
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12Colgate University2.53+0.83vs Predicted
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13Ocean County College2.88-1.94vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.89-3.02vs Predicted
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15Hampton University1.86-0.50vs Predicted
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16Columbia University1.99-1.75vs Predicted
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17George Washington University2.84-5.44vs Predicted
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18Princeton University1.50-2.72vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.71St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.1%1st Place
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10.37Washington College3.190.0%1st Place
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6.13U. S. Naval Academy4.340.1%1st Place
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5.45Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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3.63Georgetown University5.190.2%1st Place
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8.86Fordham University3.530.0%1st Place
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7.96Old Dominion University3.760.1%1st Place
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8.76University of Virginia3.540.0%1st Place
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9.22U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.0%1st Place
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6.83SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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8.61University of Pennsylvania3.630.1%1st Place
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12.83Colgate University2.530.0%1st Place
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11.06Ocean County College2.880.0%1st Place
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10.98Cornell University2.890.0%1st Place
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14.5Hampton University1.860.0%1st Place
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14.25Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
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11.56George Washington University2.840.0%1st Place
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15.28Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Menninger | 13.9% | 14.5% | 14.4% | 12.7% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conner Blouin | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 1.1% |
| Robert Vann | 8.3% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Blouin | 11.3% | 12.1% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Charlie Buckingham | 23.2% | 20.0% | 13.8% | 13.3% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carl Shorett | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Stephanie Roble | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% |
| Gary Herring | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Shawn Murray | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Halsey Richartz | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Scott Layton | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 13.9% | 8.6% |
| Tyler Kennedy | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 2.4% |
| Vincent Andrews | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 3.2% |
| Shane Horsford | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 10.0% | 14.5% | 19.4% | 22.4% |
| John Croll | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 14.3% | 17.5% | 19.8% |
| William Ricketson | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 7.7% | 3.1% |
| Gene Merewether | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 12.0% | 18.8% | 36.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.