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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston University1.01+1.95vs Predicted
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2University of New Hampshire0.68+1.76vs Predicted
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3Middlebury College-0.37+3.26vs Predicted
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4University of New Hampshire-0.00+2.52vs Predicted
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5Olin College of Engineering0.22-0.29vs Predicted
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6University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.77+3.18vs Predicted
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7Maine Maritime Academy-0.33-0.79vs Predicted
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8Maine Maritime Academy-0.31-1.99vs Predicted
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9University of New Hampshire-1.09-0.71vs Predicted
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10Williams College-1.12-1.71vs Predicted
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11University of New Hampshire-1.83-0.73vs Predicted
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12University of New Hampshire-1.54-2.41vs Predicted
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13Worcester Polytechnic Institute-2.39-1.44vs Predicted
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14Middlebury College-2.37-2.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.95Boston University1.0127.6%1st Place
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3.76University of New Hampshire0.6817.9%1st Place
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6.26Middlebury College-0.377.0%1st Place
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6.52University of New Hampshire-0.006.3%1st Place
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4.71Olin College of Engineering0.2212.3%1st Place
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9.18University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.772.6%1st Place
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6.21Maine Maritime Academy-0.337.4%1st Place
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6.01Maine Maritime Academy-0.317.5%1st Place
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8.29University of New Hampshire-1.092.6%1st Place
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8.29Williams College-1.123.2%1st Place
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10.27University of New Hampshire-1.831.5%1st Place
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9.59University of New Hampshire-1.542.2%1st Place
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11.56Worcester Polytechnic Institute-2.390.8%1st Place
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11.41Middlebury College-2.370.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Selian | 27.6% | 21.9% | 17.9% | 12.5% | 9.1% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Cannon | 17.9% | 18.1% | 16.7% | 14.9% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Penelope Weekes | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| James Sullivan | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| James Jagielski | 12.3% | 12.6% | 12.5% | 12.8% | 13.7% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Kate Myler | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 12.3% | 13.7% | 13.1% | 10.4% | 5.9% |
| Nathan Hyde | 7.4% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Griffen Horne | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Sonja Krajewski | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 2.8% |
| Rem Johannknecht | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 6.4% | 2.9% |
| Cameron McLean | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 11.5% | 16.1% | 17.6% | 13.4% |
| Kathleen Hanson | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 11.2% | 12.8% | 12.1% | 13.6% | 9.5% |
| Samuel Ott | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 13.1% | 19.2% | 33.1% |
| Bronwyn Jensen | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 12.2% | 19.4% | 31.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.